Winter, weapons supply and the threat of annexation. What is waiting further to Ukraine in the war with the Russian Federation

The famous British edition calls 5 prophecies about the course of war in Ukraine: the first option is called the continuation of the war, at least another year. Currently, the fighting has come to a dead end, the intensity of the fighting is declining. During the 6 months of the war, neither Ukraine nor the Russian Federation is ready to reduce fighting, despite the loss. Ukraine wants to return the enthusiastic territories, and the Russian Federation wants to win them and harm indirectly.

After the massacre in Bucha, Irpen and other cities, there are no negotiations between Kiev and Moscow. The promotion of Russian troops after the capture of Lisichansk is minimal. Both sides are picking up the impulse, but are increasingly exhausted. Ukraine would like to regain Kherson, but as the anonymous representative of the OP stated, this is not enough for this. Partisan raids can be an optimistic way of accelerating the collapse of Russia.

Therefore, Kyiv changes tactics and strikes for the purposes of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, and the forces of special operations carry out bold raids in the deep rear of the captured territories. OP Michael Advisor said that the purpose of Ukraine was to create chaos within the Russian forces. However, according to the publication, it will not cause the Russian Federation to voluntarily surrender Kherson.

Russia does not have a new offensive plan, except for the massacre of attracting artillery, destroying cities and laying a way forward. They do this partly because it is effective and minimized. The author cites "some Western grades" about 15,000 fallen soldiers of the Russian Federation. The use of mass artillery was fixed around Bakhmut until the Armed Forces had to transfer troops to Kherson.

The Kremlin may not have reached what he hoped at the beginning of the war, but now Russia has large areas of Ukrainian territory in the east and south. There is an active preparation for annexation referendums. Probably, as the cooler weather approaches, the Russian Federation will focus on strengthening what it has. The onset of colds will lead to a new wave of refugees from Ukraine. At the same time, winter will create opportunities for those who are better prepared for it.

In strategic thinking, winter can be a field of opportunity for the Russian Federation and Ukraine. Ukraine is already evacuating from Donetsk region because of the concern of humanitarian problems. Up to 2 million people can leave to Poland in the winter, says a representative of the humanitarian organization. In Kiev, it is afraid that Russia is aiming at the Ukrainian power system, exacerbating the problem of heating and can simply turn off the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant.

Moscow also wants to continue the pain of the event because of energy prices and has every reason to increase the pressure. Ukraine would be defeated without a military assistance. But so far, the event has not provided enough artillery or other weapons, such as fighters that would allow Kiev to discard the invaders. Politicians speak of the need to push Russia to pre -war borders, but do not provide enough equipment. The humanitarian problem is increasing in the northern regions of Ukraine.

There is a lack of money to restore houses north of Kiev. The buildings remain destroyed 5 months after the occupants are left. People have to live in temporary buildings or garages. Internal displaced persons are also not sweet. Often, they have to live in schools or gardens. The budget deficit is $ 5 billion a month. The restoration of the destroyed infrastructure will cost several times more expensive.