The Kremlin "taught" Russians to wait for victory: ISW explained why Putin will not make concessions

The spokesman of the President of the Russian Federation, Dmytro Peskov, described the position of the aggressor country as "well-known" and "consistent". At the same time, the spokeswoman of the enemy's Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova, mentioned the leadership's discussion of the need to eliminate the so-called "root causes" in order to ensure peace after the end of the war.

First Deputy Chairman of the Committee on International Affairs of the State Duma of Russia, Oleksiy Chepa, rejected the idea of ​​a truce for the sake of diplomatic negotiations, explaining that it should not be concluded along the current lines. This is stated in the October 20 report of the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

According to Chepa, the Russian Federation should conclude an agreement on the construction of the "future world order in Ukraine" before agreeing to a ceasefire. He said that the meeting in Budapest could force Kyiv to accept the conditions, after which it would be possible to conclude a truce along the front line.

The politician emphasized that Russia also needs guarantees from the United States, and mentioned "many issues", in particular the demands regarding the neutrality of Ukraine, the cessation of NATO expansion and the reduction of "certain types of weapons.

" "The Kremlin has repeatedly emphasized the need to address the alleged 'root causes' of the war in Ukraine, which Kremlin officials have identified as NATO's eastward expansion and Ukraine's alleged discrimination against Russian-speaking citizens.

The Kremlin is using discussions about these root causes to advance Russia's initial demands for Ukraine's neutrality, the removal of Ukraine's legitimate government, the installation of a pro-Russian government, and changes in the policy of open NATO's door," the analysts explained. They recalled that the Kremlin has repeatedly rejected proposals for a truce, stressing that negotiations should take place first.

ISW suggests that Moscow is once again recalling the aims of the war to clarify the unacceptability of US President Donald Trump's position. In addition, Russia is preparing its people for complete victory in the war at any cost. This domestic policy contradicts statements about readiness for territorial concessions.

"Throughout the war, the Kremlin constantly reiterated that Russia's demands remained unchanged and informed the Russian people that Russia would achieve all of these goals in Ukraine, whether through military or diplomatic means. The Kremlin did not prepare Russian society to accept anything less than these demands," the analysts emphasized.

The Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Serhiy Shoigu stated on October 20 that the temporarily occupied Ukrainian lands should be perceived as "old regions" that allegedly "historically" belonged to the aggressor country. rosZMI clarified that it is about Donbas and the so-called "Novorossiya" - a fictional region in the south and east of Ukraine, which the Kremlin considers an "inseparable part" of Russia.

"The Kremlin has trained Russians to expect that Russia's illegal annexation of parts of Ukraine is permanent and that Russia cannot make any territorial concessions to Ukraine. (…) Russian officials and pro-Kremlin voices downplayed or dismissed the prospect of territorial concessions after Western media reports that Putin had recently made a similar offer of territorial concessions to Trump.

Putin's refusal to prepare the Russian people, including an important ultra-nationalist electorate, to any concessions in the war in Ukraine is another indicator that he has no intention of backing down from his long-standing demands in any future peace talks," the ISW concluded. It will be recalled that earlier, in the report for October 19, the ISW warned that the terms of the proposed exchange of Donbass for Zaporizhia and Kherson regions are unclear.