Russia without Putin: Does the war end with dictator's departure

As practice shows, the departure of the dictator, who has long kept power, does not change the essence of power in the country. Still, the political scientist Igor Popov notes, Russia without Putin-this will open a window of opportunity before Ukraine, even a small one.

Can internal changes in Russia lead to a change in the course of war in Ukraine? Is there a likelihood that in the case of a hypothetical transfer of power in March 2024 or in the case of the physical end of the Russian President, Russia will finish the war and bring troops? There is a chance, but there are no guarantees.

The correlation between the change of the leader of the autocratic regime and his aggressive policies has been investigated in several books, including "Democracies and Authoritarian Regimes" (Authors-Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Natasha Lindstaedt, and Erica Frantz). One of the conclusions is that if an authoritarian leader has been leading the country for more than 20 years, then after his death in 80% of cases the regime remains the same.

After the Cold War, there were no cases of government upheavals in countries with such a long term of personnel dictatorship. Gabon may be an exception, but there was only a revolution there, and the authorities were not removed from the founder of the dynasty, but by his son. The example of preserving the regime after changing the leader - Maduro in Venezuela has completely continued Chavez's policy. In North Korea, the country is governed by the third generation of Kim family.

In March this year, the authors of the research in Putin's Forever War for Foreign Affairs showed statistics according to which, in the event of an aggressive war, the dictator lost power in only 7% of cases, studied cases of the last 70 years. If an authoritarian leader loses power, then it happens during the first year of the war.

After that, the war becomes part of the political architecture of the dictatorial regime, and it can end only in the case of losing the aggressor, but not at his goodwill. Of course, in 1953, after the death of Stalin M. Khrushchev, he allowed to stop the war in Korea and began a "thaw". However, now such a scenario cannot be relying. Although, of course, any changes in the Kremlin are a window to increase diplomatic pressure.