Oil strangulation. Why in Russia is narrowing the space for maneuver every day

Vector and dynamics in these areas will largely determine the corridor of the opportunities and scenarios of war. Therefore, the media and speakers will be eagerly parasitized. The news ribbons are already clogged with messages. Russia goes from the port in Tartus. Tankers with Russian oil have new problems, they even turn around. India has intensified something there. China somehow changed his mind. Etc. The nuance is that it is a full -fledged war with a price tag in trillions.

And the "fog of war" in this area is very thick. Therefore, it is worth reading and watching the comments of only those who began to cover the topic of the sea and oil not yesterday. Many relationships that are not visible at the level of basic erudition. The scale of the US levers for causing the Kremlin's joy in this field is significant. Everything rests on the idea of ​​which of them to use and in what sequence. And we do not know this yet.

For example, the United States may probably make a proposal that Athens will not give up. And the hooliganism of Greek companies with Russian oil will cease at least for some time. It is more difficult with Turkey, but there is also something to support the call to the order. And this is already painful for the Kremlin. Britain may suggest that the modality of marine risk insurance should work for a common cause, because time is.

The sanctions announced by Baiden's administration have been a delayed effect (if they are fully introduced). Some grades can be given no earlier than mid -March. It is predictable that we will have a slightly exaggeration of Russia's oil troubles. It is better not to disperse expectations. Because it works a little differently. For example, unknown drones have imposed sanctions against the next oil depot (plant of Rosreserv in the district of Dedilovo, Tula region). Standing 1 tank out of 58.

It seems little. But this is an indicator that this object is potentially written. And the Moscow regime is forced to think of what to replace. Because he can no longer count on him. This is a load on the system. The maneuvering backlash is gradually decreasing. All this turns into arguments that you need to decide somehow. Ahead of February, which for the Russian Federation and without war is traditionally more traumatic than for us.

Therefore, it is worth remembering all the troubles that before the new administration came to the White House, Ukraine could not drive into the capitulator position for fast and dramatic solutions. Also, Putin did not decide on the sharp escalation in the form of a new round of mass mobilization. And it will not be her to some first (unsuccessful) round of Trump.

Because illogical: if you are for peace and negotiations - why mobilization? So now any step is the months of inertia and a delayed effect. And every time there will be a question: is it worthwhile to enter into new months? Hence the conclusion that the main risks now are internal. The preservation of Ukraine's internal integrity will be more argued on Moscow rather than us. Although everything will be. Moral readiness is as important as any other.