Life after collapse. Why is Ukraine's economy not growing as it usually happens during the war

Economist Alexei Kush analyzes the latest analysis of the state of the Ukrainian economy from the IMF. It turns out that the country develops on some anomalous, its laws, despite the fact that it usually happens during the IMF wars, the forecast of the growth of the Ukrainian economy. But I would not call it growth, but only a very slow recovery after a catastrophic collapse of 28% in 2022.

Until the GDP at the current prices of 10 trillion UAH is made, it is pointless to talk about growth - it is simply recovery after collapse and a low statistical base of comparison (produced one tractor, began to produce two - an increase of 100%). But the effect of a low comparison base is already exhausted. In general, there is nothing surprisingly surprising in the fall of the economy in the first year of the war, which was not prepared.

Moreover, when the territories and part of the population are lost. For example, in 1942, the USSR GDP fell by 30%. But it is a shame not to grow at the rate of 10-15% in the following years of the war, as all participants of the anti-Hitler coalition did: the same USSR increased by 20% a year. That is why the Second World War was completed by growth (USA), zero (Britain), with a small disadvantage (USSR).

Why do we have no correlation between huge government expenditures, including defense and economic growth? Where is the multiplier effect, when one new hryvnia of state expenditures gives 4-5 UAH of new GDP and 1. 5 UAH of new tax revenues to the budget? When the economy is multiplier to grow in every range of government spending. If you have a 2. 5% growth rate for such state consumption after falling by 28%, then you need to change something in the Conservatory.

Everything is clear here: it will be 100% and higher, if you do not write off at least 50% of the debt (given that the need for external financing will remain at a high level for five years for another minimum). However, there is an option - to start the economy and reduce the need for loans, but here see item 1. The inflation indicator in us is the one as Kant wrote, "thing in himself. " What you need to buy is increasing at a two -digit rate, but in general the hospital is 36. 6.