Lukashenko's bomb, Putin's button. Where will the answer arrive if nuclear weapons are launched from Belarus

On May 25, Russian Defense Ministers Sergey Shoig and Belarus Viktor Khrenin signed a document on the placement of non -strategic nuclear weapons on the territory of the Republic of Belarus. On the same day, Alexander Lukashenko stated that the process of moving ammunition was started. It should be clarified here that the special repository, according to the Russian President, should be built in Belarus by July 2023. It is unlikely that this weapon will be stored in ordinary military warehouses.

Within a few days, Lukashenko began to distribute the Russian nuclear arsenal not yet received, who would join the so -called union state. "No one mind that Kazakhstan and other countries have the same close relationship as we have with the Russian Federation. And it is very simple - the Union of Belarus and Russia must be entered. , not the opinion of the Russians. But I think it is possible, ”Lukashenko stressed.

In response to such calls, President of Kazakhstan Kasim-Zhomart Tokaev stated that "Lukashenko's joke" dignified. From the statement of Putin to place tactical nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus for exactly two months. Although the first hints in the Kremlin began to be made in the summer of 2022.

It was then that the Russian Federation stated that the Minsk anti-aircraft missile complexes of the C-400 and operational-tactical complexes "Iskander", which may have nuclear warheads, will transmit the Minsk. At the end of the year, the official Minsk reported that the complexes have already been put on combat duty. In addition, the issue of modernization of Belarusian Su-25 stormtroopers to the ability to carry nuclear charges is discussed.

Lukashenko's main argument for this decision was that Western countries try to draw Belarus into the war, and he himself is not going to heal and blackmail anyone. According to the document signed on May 25 in Minsk, the decision on the use of non -strategic, ie tactical nuclear weapons (tenders) remains with the Russian side. In other words, the territory of Belarus becomes the storage and probable launch of nuclear charges by decision from Moscow.

Professor Sergey Galak explains that the Russian Federation bypasses the International Treaty on Nuclear Weapons. "If they do not make the possibility of applying for use, it is not a violation of the contract. For example, a similar example of US nuclear weapons is located in Turkey and Germany," says Galaka Focus. "Lukashenko should understand that nuclear weapons are not potatoes that can be stored in the cellar and getting, when he wants.

The decision on the use of charges will be made in the Kremlin, Lukashenko will not have any influence on the decision or practice. The "button" is personalized, so it was in the USSR, Ukraine had its arsenal, but could not dispose of it. Thus, a nuclear storage in Belarus becomes a legitimate goal during deployment, or even preventively, " - says focus a political analyst, a political analyst, says focus. Oleksandr Kochetkov, rocket-nuclear weapons expert.

The beginning of the Cold War dates back, when nuclear countries have begun to develop nuclear charges of less power to the task of the impact, which will allow to solve tactical tasks. Unlike strategic nuclear weapons, tactical has a much lower power and can be used without special delivery tools, ie rockets. Speaking in numbers, the gravity can affect the targets up to 500 km, and its power does not reach 100 kilotonnes in the TNT, for strategic - 1000 kilotonic.

Tactical nuclear charges in the form of shells can even be used from self -propelled artillery installations (SAU). For example, 203 mm of SAU "Malka". In history, tactical nuclear weapons have never been used on the battlefield. With its nuclear triad, the Russian Federation can reach anywhere in the globe. Therefore, the placement of nuclear charges in the territory of Belarus will change the parity of forces.

In addition, the explanation that is placed for restraint and alleged safety guarantees from the encroachment of the event looks strange, while the "button" remains in Moscow. At the same time, the Secretary of the Security Council of Belarus Alexander Volfovich assured that the use of even tactical nuclear weapons will have irreversible consequences. But this will be the extreme step.

The military analyst, the reserve colonel Petro Chernik explains the focus that Belarus has long lost its subjectivity and is the territory of the occupied Russian Federation. Lukashenko has long been used as a curtain so that the population does not start nervous. Therefore, all statements about great potential and prospects for Russian nuclear weapons are just a product for the domestic consumer, nothing more.

According to Sergiy Galaki, having agreed to the placement of Russian tactical nuclear weapons, Lukashenko became Putin's hostage and will bring the war to his territory. "But Lukashenko is no longer choosing, he now thinks about how to keep himself and hold on to power. He played Putin to the last - provides military objects, weapons and transmits Belarusian military equipment for storage, so as not to retract his army into the war.

He has long dragged the country into the war, so he publishes a sore as a gain and protection of the people, "the expert says. Galak notes that one of the reasons that Lukashenko does not mobilize in the country is that he is afraid to equip the population, he realizes that the army can return against him. In turn, Alexander Kochetkov suggests that no placement of the TAOO in Belarus may not happen, and everything will remain only loud statements.

"Remember, Putin frightened that he would place nuclear weapons in Kaliningrad, in the Crimea, even prepared a storage facility, but it did not happen. It is surprising why he should do it in Belarus. In the Kremlin, Lukashenko can use this weapons for further trading With the West, thus trading his legitimacy, "he says focus. In response to the systematic threats of the Kremlin, the nuclear weapons of the West's country repeatedly warned Putin even not to think about it.

As early as April 2022, Boris Johnson, at that time, Prime Minister of Great Britain, stated that the country reserved the right to strike a nuclear blow in response, in the case of Russian nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Already in October, Reuters reported that NATO is preparing for a physical response in the event of a Russian nuclear attack on Ukraine.

After placing the gravity in the territory of Belarus, the country also becomes a legitimate goal, although it does not have access to decision -making on such use. "In the case of Putin's decision to apply nuclear weapons from the territory of Belarus, the answer will be in the center of decision -making, that is, in Moscow, and in starting installations - in Belarus," Kochetkov says.

The former head of the Foreign Intelligence Service, General of the Army Mykola Malomuzh explains that from the joint decision of Putin and Lukashenko on the placement of nuclear weapons, their joint and several responsibility for the preparation of a terrorist act with the use of nuclear weapons, which was not in history. "That is why the operative channels are now warned about the consequences of such weapons.

The West monitor the situation online, so at the time of preparation or charge by a nuclear charge of the carrier, a prejudice stroke can be caused," he explains the focus. He notes that Western special services on operational channels are constantly transferred to the Russian Federation about the inevitability of response to the use of nuclear weapons. The final argument is always an official statement to make a warning for the whole world. "I had personal experience in communicating with Putin.

I want to say that he does not accept anything but supercritical arguments against him and the Russian Federation. Only a direct direct threat to his life," - adds Lightmark. Petro Chernik reminds that the event has enough conventional tools and tools to not resort to nuclear weapons. For example, to disable all electronic equipment of the Russian Federation or Belarus or leave them without the ability to control energy objects.