Hungry year for Russia. Threatened - a third of the federal budget

"The German government is proud to receive 0% gas, 0% oil and 0% coal from Russia. Although in 2022 the Russian Federation still earned its 120 billion in the EU, the year 2023 will be hungry for it. Oil is cheap, And the gas has nowhere to go. " Opinion. The German Finance Minister in the New Year's text for Financial Times is proud that business has reduced consumption by 20%. And confidently states that he knows how to prevent the "industrial production" collapse during the energy crisis.

The European Union allocates 255 billion euros to implement a re-pover eu plan: a way to reduce dependence on Russia. 8 out of 10 Europeans support this course - understand that the energy crisis is caused by the Russians. All this a year ago seemed fantastic. Just remember January 2022. Russia at the peak of influence on Europe. Energy weapons are fully charged - Europeans are officially (according to Eurostat) are 83% dependent in gas supply and 50% in oil supply.

Frau Merkel's long -term work is impressive: Germany seeks to receive 130% of the need for gas from Moscow, that is, not only to give business cheap gas, but also to make money on it. Over the past ten years, Europe has allowed the Russians to earn a trillion euro. From this money, Russians buy electronics for missiles, fund propaganda and corruption. Not surprisingly, Russian strategists were convinced that after invasion of Ukraine, no one would risk giving up a cheap resource.

And in the first weeks of the war it was: the first sanctions from hell did not touch energy. The first trips with the belief that Russia should be fused financially, we started in March - a team of diplomats, officials and experts who did not have to ask what to do. They knew where to go and who to talk to. In Berlin and Brussels, there was an unconcealed panic. Politicians and officials acknowledged that mistakes were made, but were afraid to take any sharp steps.

Half a year has passed and Europeans woke up with the help of Biden administration and our arguments and calculations. Europeans found a way to replace oil supplies. It was the oil that gave the Russians the lion's part of the income. The price limit for it does not harm Europe, but next year will cause the fall of production in Russia in half. It will kill a large part of the budget and will destroy several regions, which depend on the production.

Russian gas sanctioned itself, blackmail and explosions on its own gas pipeline. No one will work with them anymore, Gazprom will return to the European market. Although Russia has earned its 120 billion in the EU in 2022, the year 2023 will be hungry for it. Oil is cheap, gas is nowhere to go. Threatening, think, one third of the Russian Federal Budget. This is optimistic forecasts for the Russians, although there are no real figures - classified. This will not be crucial for the course of war.

When the Russian family becomes less money, it is not a dad stops drinking, and children eat less. But every year our enemy will be weaker, there is no energy weapons and will not be. What's next? Even more difficult work. Russian energy fraudsters cannot be underestimated, as the military cannot be underestimated. This year, Europe is waiting for a continuation of the energy crisis - the fragility of refusing cheap fuel will continue.

An important date will be February 5 - the beginning of sanctions against Russian petroleum products. Russia hopes for a counter -offensive. At this point, all Russian agents, part of European business and politics, such as Orban, are activated. We will need to hold every government for the pen and reassure that the fuel crisis is not scary, we have passed it and even become stronger. And then take up the sacred Russian cow - nuclear energy.

In 2022, Russia became a state that can be qualified as nuclear terrorism. At the same time, it continues to supply uranium and fuel assemblies, to build reactors around the world. As of 2020, Rosatom prepared or built 23 reactors abroad - on all continents. The same Rosatom, who tries to squeeze the Zaporozhye NPP, threatening the entire continent. It will be even more difficult to achieve sanctions in this area than in oil and gas, but we have shown that we can achieve the impossible.

All teams - diplomats, politicians, analysts, experts - we are gradually moving from a successful sprint to a successful marathon, there is both strength and the mood to fight. Well, the hardest part is homework. Because sanctions are like choking the enemy. And to restore the modern new energy infrastructure, live investments are required. For money to come to Ukraine, we must demonstrate in our example that energy reforms are ready to carry out.