Night without "Shahaneda" - day one: as evidenced by the "lull"

This was the last March 14, and before that - October 14, 2024. However, on the night of April 1, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation dumped airplanes in Sumy region, Zaporozhye, Donetsk region. The focus understood, as evidenced by this "lull" and the first time for a long night without "shahas".

The veteran of the Russo-Ukrainian War, the reserve Major Alexei Hetman believes that the night without "Shahmed" is directly related to negotiations between Russia and the US on the possible end of the war. "It is likely that Russia is trying to influence the President of the United States, demonstrating its readiness for peace.

They are constantly talking about it through the statements of Peskov, Zakharova, Lavrov, claiming that they want to end the war, but allegedly Ukraine prevents it from it," says Hetman. However, such statements of Russian representatives look cynical, especially against the background of constant Russian attacks. In a short period, the Russians released more than a thousand "Shahaned" in Ukraine, not to mention managed bombs and missiles. This does not indicate the desire for peace.

"Perhaps this situation has finally reached Trump, and there are reports of his dissatisfaction with Putin. But because of the complexity of diplomacy and information curtain, it is difficult to say exactly what is happening. We will only know the truth only later when it becomes part of history," the expert continues. Probably, Russia is trying to temporarily reduce the intensity of attacks to create the illusion of peaceful intentions.

But according to the hetman, it will not last long, but if even for a few days or weeks it becomes calmer, it will allow the Ukrainian military to at least a little rest and regroup forces. Political scientist Oleg Posternak is skeptical of this "lull", because after one night without the Shahmed attack, it is too early to talk about really termination of massive shelling. Moreover, when the Russian Federation is still firing with Kabami City.

"Some may assume that this is the result of Trump's threats against Russian oil. Theoretically, it is possible - Russia could pause in rocket and drone blows in Ukraine, focusing on other actions. If this pause lasts for a long It is really a conscious action of Russia and whether it is a result of behind -the -scenes arrangements.

However, the military analyst Dmitry Snegirev believes that it was because of the so -called oil pressure of the US President on the Russian Federation that Ukraine was not attacked by "Shahheda" on the night of April 1 - the Kremlin is preparing for negotiations to end the war. "If the Russian Federation does not agree to a peaceful negotiation process, it is waiting for a reaction.

It is about the so -called secondary sanctions - not only against the Russian oil refinery and the shadow fleet, but also against the countries that buy Russian oil. It is a serious political and economic signal from the US. For example, on the eve of his speech, Panama canceled the registration of 128 vessels related to the Russian shadowy fleet, after they were sanctioned by the US and their allies. Solution, "says Focus Snegirev.

Another important factor, according to the analyst, is the decision of Iraq. Who stated that it would increase oil production by one and a half times, despite the OPEC+agreement, which includes Russia, Saudi Arabia and other countries. This will significantly hit the pricing policy of the Russian Federation, as it will reduce the world's oil prices, complicating the Kremlin's ability to earn profits. "Is this solely Iraq's decision? There are some doubts.

At first, there are specific actions and then statements about" deep concern ", which forces Russia to react. Long -term peace. Earlier, Donald Trump stated that in case of refusal of the Russian Federation, it would be aware of rigid sanctions and actual economic blockade. But the Russians responded in their own way: instead of drone attacks, they began to use aviation more actively. Strokes on civil infrastructure in Zaporizhzhya, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy regions are ongoing.

This is another tactic of Russia - on the one hand, to demonstrate readiness for dialogue, and on the other - to increase terror. "Some may assume that Russia is simply accumulating drones for a massive attack in the future. But this is not true. As the GUR representative Vadim Skibitsky said, the Russian Federation has already scale up the production of drones and missiles, and also receives ballistic missiles from North Korea.

Moscow is forced to react, balancing between a demonstration for peace and a real strengthening of blows, "the expert sums up. Earlier, Focus wrote why US leader Donald Trump was not satisfied with the behavior of Russian President Vladimir Putin. The Kremlin head proposed to introduce a temporary administration in Ukraine under the auspices of the UN to hold a presidential election, and then to conclude a peace agreement. The focus has disassembled what Putin's next requirements can lead to.