"There is no smoke without fire." Why the military is afraid of re -offensive of the Russian Federation on Kiev and south of Ukraine

The Major General of the Armed Forces Dmitry Marchenko warned of the likelihood of a new attack of Russian troops on the capital and urged to prepare for defense. Focus, military analysts interviewed the unreality of the plans, and political scientists see the implication for the need to strengthen mobilization. The Russian army in 2024 can try to cut Ukraine from the Black Sea and go on the offensive on Kiev.

Ukraine needs to be seriously prepared for defense, says Major General of the Armed Forces Dmitry Marchenko. The military leadership of the Russian Federation has not abandoned the south of Ukraine. Therefore, it is necessary to build three lines of defense so that the promotion of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation does not happen for even a few kilometers. Marchenko also believes that occupiers can attack Kiev.

For this purpose, the Russian Federation will have enough means and number of military. Commanders in the Russian Federation do not care for the loss of 30-40 thousand people, so Russian propagandists often talk about the capture of the Ukrainian capital. "We understand that it can be so -called information throws, propaganda usually works for full. However, smoke without fire is not said," the military emphasized. It is impossible to relax, because no one goes just during the war.

The Russians will overestimate the military environment, make conclusions, regroup troops and go again, confident Marchenko. The large -scale offensive of the Russians in Marchenko mentioned in the near future is not real for several reasons. The main point is the breakthrough of Ukrainian defense, says focus military expert Pavel Narozhny. "Let's take the southern plot. There are about 70,000 of our fighters in the robot. Yes, they are tired, they lack shells, but still it is a powerful force.

In the Armed Forces there are reserves in other directions, they can be thrown away. The front is saturated with FPV-Drones , they are used in attack and intelligence. The enemy armored vehicles will be an easy goal for them. The defense can be made by a lot of infantry, but mine fields will have to be passed, "the expert explains. The Armed Forces also strike in the Crimea, which complicates the processes of supply and logistics.

If you take the example of Avdiivka, it is much more convenient for the Armed Forces in terms of the offensive. Around the border with Russia and you can easily throw ammunition and equipment. For several months, they have been fighting for the city and losing columns of armored vehicles and personnel, continued the people. "The enemy also has a lack of human resource.

Yes, more, but for the breakthrough of defense it is necessary to collect 5-6 times more people and they should all be ready to die in the minefields," the analyst notes. General Marchenko's military assessments may be related to the support of the power plan to strengthen the mobilization, says political scientist Vladimir Fesenko. "I can't evaluate General Marchenko's motifs and why he says there is a danger of recurrent offensive.

It may be his analysis, fantasy, whether there is a implication associated with the need to strengthen mobilization. But even if the direct threat to Kiev will be, for many This will not be an incentive for mobilization, rather on the contrary - an incentive for escape, "he explains focus. As a rule, people respond differently to the danger: someone takes a weapon and someone runs. The effect of such statements of the military may be the exact opposite expectation.

"Everyone has a globally danger to our country. And it is necessary to talk about it - from [Commander -in -Chief of the Armed Forces of the Armed Forces] Zaluzhny to [President of Ukraine Vladimir] Zelensky. If we do not stop the enemy, the war can be delayed, we can lose the whole country. The stimulus for mobilization is this approach that will not work, "the political scientist added.

Fesenko draws attention to the statements of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine on the lack of danger of the Russian offensive in Kiev in the near future. "There will be a sign of danger to Kiev in Belarus or Bryansk region. There are currently no such direct threats," he summed up.

We will remind, the head of the Kharkiv Regional Military Administration Oleg Synegubov on January 27 stated that the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation restored the intense offensive of the direction of Sinkivka and Tabayivka. The military and local authorities should be ready for any development, he warned. Deepstate analysts have previously summarized the Armed Forces and occupiers. The Russian Federation seized the largest number of territory during the battle for Bakhmut.