1,400 "Shahanedov" in 2023: the Russian Federation has accelerated production and can attack Ukraine more often - ISW

At the same time, analysts believe that current drones, rockets and production rates are likely not to allow the Russian Federation to carry out regular massive shelling. The Russian Government is probably trying to develop its own components to replace foreign, as well as to expand the release of their own drones and missiles.

According to Ukrainian intelligence, the efforts of the Russian Federation to expand the Russian defense-industrial base do not yet meet the operational requirements in Ukraine. The lack of ammunition will continue to encourage the Russian Federation to buy foreign purchases. Deputy Chief of GUR Major General Vadim Skibitsky stated that the Russian defense industry could produce two million ammunition 122 mm and 152 mm caliber during the year, which led to a deficiency of 500,000 shells in 2023.

This is most likely to be observed in 2024. To increase production, there are not enough components, skilled personnel and production facilities. Skibitsky noted that Russia had previously purchased shells in Belarus, Iran and North Korea. On January 11, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky warned that the Russian Federation would use any "pause" or a temporary ceasefire agreement to accumulate drones, artillery and missiles.

He also noted that the Russian Federation has already received more than one million shells from North Korea. Prosecutor General of Ukraine Andriy Kostin has confirmed the recent reports of the West that Russian troops have already fired at Ukraine with North Korean missiles. According to Politico, despite sanctions, Russia imported goods and components worth $ 8. 77 billion required for the production of missiles, UAVs, armored vehicles and other military equipment from January to October 2023.

By the end of 2023, rocket production was increased to 115 per month. At the same time, sanctions create pressure on the supply chains and have caused "unprecedented losses" in the total production of military aviation and equipment of the Russian Federation. It should be reminded that on January 9 it became known that the Russian Federation could receive a limited number of jet Shahd-238. It was also reported how dangerous the new ShahED-107 and what its efficiency during the war.