Putin's Victory Theory: The Kremlin plans to force Ukraine to surrender - ISW

According to the Institute of War Study, on October 7, Putin held a meeting with the leadership of the Ministry of Defense, the General Staff, the Chairman of the Federal Security Service Alexander Bortnikov and commanders of Russian military groups. During the meeting, he stated that in 2025 the army was allegedly able to occupy 4,900 square kilometers of the Ukrainian territory - an area that he compared to the size of the US state of Delaware.

However, ISW provides other data: according to the calculations of the Institute, Russian troops captured about 3561 square kilometers in 2025, which is almost one and a half thousand square kilometers less than Putin said. During the meeting, the Russian leader also argued that the Ukrainian forces were allegedly retreating along the entire front, and Russia's defense-industrial complex works in enhanced mode, providing the army with equipment and ammunition.

He stressed that Moscow does not give up his initial goals and intends to "unconditionally" reach them on the battlefield. The head of the General Staff of the Russian Federation Valery Gerasimov during the same meeting stated that Russian units were allegedly "moving in almost all directions".

The ISW report states that such statements reflect Putin's ancient theory of exhaustion, under which the Russian army can endlessly conduct translational fighting, hindering Ukrainian counter -offensives and hoping for the exhaustion of Ukraine and its allies. According to analysts, Putin is still confident in the ability of the Russian economy and the army to withstand the pressure of the event and continue the fighting until Ukraine is forced to capitulate.

The Kremlin has repeatedly declared a commitment to the goals formulated in 2021–2022 and does not show readiness for any compromises. "Putin's public statements continue to demonstrate his unwillingness to participate in bona fide negotiations, which lead to something less than the full surrender of Ukraine, and his determination to delay the war to achieve his military goals on the battlefield," the publication reads.