Negotiations or war: what to prepare Ukraine after a counter -offensive

Because Russia is to lose a counter -offensive in Ukraine - in fact it means to lose the war," - said in June 15, an interview with NBC, President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky. The Ukrainian counter -offensive awaits the results not only in the form of territories liberated from the Russian occupation, but also of strong arguments in subsequent negotiations. First of all, these results are waiting for our partners.

"We meet at a time when Ukraine leads a counter -offensive and we do not know if it will be a turning point of war. But we see that Ukrainians are moving and freeing more territories. We know that the more Ukraine will reach, the stronger their position will be for Table of negotiations with the Russian Federation, "said NATO Secretary -General Jens Stoltenberg before the NATO Ministers Secretary.

In fact, in order to stop this counter -offensive, all kinds of international peacekeeping initiatives have intensified. Previously, only China's leader Xi Jinping offered his 12 points, now the whole delegations are willing to be. Recently, Kiev was visited by President of South Africa with other African leaders. The next day in St. Petersburg, at a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin began to show the projects of treaties.

"At present, no one knows how the Ukrainian counter -offensive will end - it is a complex multifaceted process, its course can only be observed and then analyzed. Ukraine has an initiative, dictates the conditions.

It is necessary to imagine what is now being done in the heads of Russian officers, when last year they have already seen in binoculars of Kiev, and now they will guess where from which village Ukraine will come, " - says the former security officer of the Security Service Ukraine Ivan Stupak. In March 2023, the Czech President Peter Pavel stated that Ukraine will have only one opportunity for a counter -offensive this year.

In the future, maintaining the same level of support from the Allies will be extremely difficult. "Windows open this year. After the next winter, it will be extremely difficult to maintain the current level of assistance. Fatigue from war is not only a depletion . Earlier, Peter Paul headed the NATO Military Committee and commanded the General Staff of the Czech Army. Therefore, his words should be regarded as a statement by a professional military who understands the situation well.

On the other hand, such a statement could be made specifically, during a certain information and political campaign. At the same time, the Western media picked up a topic on how to act with the war in Ukraine further. In particular, the authoritative edition of The Guardian has published material that the Western partners of Ukraine will begin to insist on ceasefire and long -term truce.

Like, the Russian Federation will be able to keep most of the occupied territories, the event will not be able to support weapons at the same level, and Ukrainian refugees will start returning home. The main theses that can be heard from the West indicate that if Ukraine does not succeed in summer military campaigns, then support may no longer be at such a level as it is now. That is why it is worth considering what scenario the war will continue without the necessary support.

"If we achieve significant results during the counter -offensive, we do not need to beware that the event will cease to support us, because of our own fatigue. The only one needs to be ready for the Kremlin campaign to shake public opinion in the West," says political scientist Viktor Bobireko. Political scientist Mykola Davidyuk notes the focus that some Western politicians are beginning to prepare public opinion for negotiations, there are still those who believe and want to keep Putin's face.

In turn, the Kremlin launches the processes of pushing Ukraine to the table of negotiations. We have repeatedly heard from the officials of the Russian authorities that they are ready and open to negotiations. For example, on June 20, a spokesman for Russian President Dmitry Peskov repeated the mantra about openness to negotiations. Although, on June 11, he stated that Russia has no prerequisites to start negotiating with Ukraine. "I have a certain inside from the United Kingdom.

Putin was gathering his elites to talk about the situation. At this meeting it was said that belief in victory was go "Minsk" or "Istanbul" negotiations. We have already passed it in 2014 - in eight years, Putin has prepared a full -scale invasion, " - says Focus Davidyuk. He reminds that in the fall of 2023 the Kremlin plans to hold elections in the occupied territories of Kherson and Zaporizhzhya regions. This is done to formally legitimize your power.

Political expert Viktor Bobirenko assures that it is not a fact that this year there may be any negotiations with the Russian Federation. Moreover, no peace treaty can be a priori, only a truce is possible. He notes that during this year's counter -offensive campaign, Ukraine will not be able to fully free its territory, enter the borders of 1991. Here you need to be honest and soberly assess the situation. "This year we can really liberate the south, but not the Donbass.

Donetsk-Luhansk agglomeration is a jungle stone that no one in the forehead will attack as" Wagnerivtsi "in Bakhmut. According to the latest sociological data, about 88% that is, entering the borders of 1991. In turn, 78% of Russians are ready to fight further, at least - to capture all Kherson and Zaporizhzhya regions, the maximum - all south of Ukraine, Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv regions, plant their government in Kiev.

That is, despite statements about Fatigue from the war, no one is tired of it. From this, we can conclude that the first one is tired, "he says. The expert reminds that the law on the Land League, although adopted, but the supply of weapons for it has not yet been, all military equipment is transmitted to us in the form of assistance. In addition, Europe quickly rebuilt its economy to the conditions of military challenges.

Therefore, the production of military equipment and ammunition has already been established. "Partners are on our side, for them it is a war for the values ​​they were to support, so they were very firmly" snacking "with Putin. Do not listen to the fatigue of the event, it is not true. I just remind you that after both world wars, US economy It has only acquired power. Today, out of 80 trillion of dollars of world GDP, more than 40 falls on the EU and the United States, which are our partners.