If we do not break the situation. What is the forecast now - how many more war will last

I am not talking about Rosgvardi, the FSB, which are involved in the so -called "stabilization" in temporarily occupied territories, namely units that are trying to participate in the offensive actions. These are the same 150 thousand, of which they started. Video of the day they had 150,000 soldiers and remains. It is clear that most of them are either dead or injured, or went for other reasons, or captured. Most of them no longer participate in the war. But the essential part is still fighting.

They also send a new personnel. Question: Will they be able to maintain the same intensity of hostilities as they are currently? Yes, they can. They now have a staff to maintain the same intensity we see now. Will they be able to significantly increase it and go into some new offensive actions? In our opinion, no. They will not be able to. But this is not only a matter of personnel.

This is first and foremost a question of their complex capabilities - both personnel, logistics, weapons and military equipment, and the capacity of the officers. We are not talking about the sergeants, because they still have a Soviet doctrine, and they are actually older soldiers who do not play the role of us. The same story with infrastructure.

When we impress, for example, warehouses of their weapons or strike their weapons and military equipment, at command points, it does not significantly reduce personnel, but very much reduces their ability to step. They had 150,000 soldiers, so the forecast is now negative for them. They will not be able to take active offensive actions in the permanent perspective and somehow increase significantly, for example, twice the presence they will not succeed.

But this is not a positive news, because they will be able to maintain the same intensity as it is now a very long time. They constantly carry out the so -called hidden mobilization. This means that they constantly sign new contracts, translate the term warriors to contracts, hire mercenaries from Wagner PVC and other organizations. This process is endless. Their organizational capacity of military administration bodies is not currently able to hire half a million people.

There are no officers, no one will prepare them. They can take half a million people, but will not be able to put them in units, go to performance. If everything is the way they now, they will be able to maintain the same intensity and number of years, because they have many people. It will be low quality staff, that is, the personnel will be poorly prepared, not motivated, poorly guided. They can not potentially increase their number, but maintain it for years.

The same situation with weapons and military equipment: there will be no high -tech weapons, but old weapons, which can nevertheless perform any tasks, they will have a lot. The warehouses have a huge number of stocks of old equipment. This old technique is incapacitated. They will not be able to increase it twice. But they constantly carry out work on its recovery and will be placed on duty, then send to us.

If we do not break the situation at the expense of the technological advantage that our partners will give us, then, unfortunately, we can still see this war for a long time. It can take some years, and can then go into a less intense conflict, which can take a very long time. This situation is not suitable, we are not interesting. We have a long war for years at all. Russia will be exhausted.

Somewhere in the end of this year - in the middle of the next they will begin very serious economic problems thanks to sanctions, but they will still find outputs somehow and will continue their existence. Therefore, it is critical to us now to negotiate with our partners about giving a number of weapons sufficient for counter -offensive actions. This is absolutely possible. Will we have the ability if partners are delayed? Our task is not to delay. Now the forecasts are positive.

We see that we can accumulate weapons and reach some critical mass after some period in order to equip additional units, to prepare them, which will be enough to start normal counter -offensive actions on a number of operating areas. What will we not be able to do? Quickly increase the ability at the expense of our own economy, because we have no technologies.

What do we need? Of course, first of all, the means of fire damage to a long distance, and the more the operating depth we can work with, the better. These should be long -range artillery tools, volley fire systems, and other systems. Our industry does not produce this. We cannot deploy production right now. We can close the part of the unmanned aviation or with the involvement of some technologies.