Crimean Armenian and "Shoig Line": What is the role of southern Ukraine in solving the fate of war

Here, they say, which front is actually flying by Sergei Shoigu! In fact, he flies over Crimea! However, I am convinced that flight over Crimea for the Russian Defense Minister is also not a walk. After all, in the Crimea now they are constructing fortifications in the area of ​​the same Armenian. And so, these fortifications just looked at the shoig helicopter. Therefore, I would not be ironic about this flight.

Shoig's trip seems to show that the Russian authorities are really preparing to defend Crimea from the offensive of Ukrainian troops. At first glance, this creation of "Shoig" may seem reinsurance. It is not yet released all of the Kherson region or the whole Zaporozhye - and without this release it is unlikely to count on the offensive of the Ukrainian army in the Crimea.

But the head of the Russian military department, I think, needs to be demonstrated by Russian President Vladimir Putin's diligence on the protection of Crimea. After all, for the Russian President, all occupied in 2014-2022 of the territory of Ukraine is, rather, a bonus to the Crimea.

And here is the Crimea itself - the same "sacrality" that allowed the support of the vast majority of Russians and start the creation of "post -Crimean" Russia - frankly authoritarian, and now, after the attack on Ukraine, and a frankly totalitarian country. Therefore, it is important for Putin not only to control Crimea, but also to the model of Russia, which was created after the occupation of the peninsula.

But does it make sense to build fortifications that should protect Crimea from possible Ukrainian offensive? From the point of view of the demonstration of dedication to the "master", of course, there is. And Shogu is known to be an official, not a commander. And in terms of military, the need for such fortifications is very doubtful. As I noted, the Crimean Liberation Operation cannot happen by itself.

The minimum conditions for such an operation are the liberation of the entire south of Ukraine, Kherson and Zaporizhzhya region. It is a restoration of control over Kakhovka, Melitopol, energy. It is the destruction of the land corridor from Russia to the Crimea, the creation of which was one of the tactical goals of "special operation" of Vladimir Putin against Ukraine. But all this will probably mean the defeat of the Russian army.

If the Armed Forces of Ukraine manage to liberate the South, then it is certain that it can not but lead to such a defeat, the complete demoralization of the Russian army and society as a whole. This does not mean that Putin will automatically lose power. But it means that the Russian president may differently look at the political and military situation, which will be due to the collapse of his Ukrainian special operation.

Yes, it is clear that in this situation, Putin can again insist on "red lines", on "territorial integrity So invasion of Crimea is a direct path to nuclear impact. Only for nuclear stroke it is not necessary to build fortifications. Therefore, in fact, Russia needs to protect not Crimea at all, but the rest of its territorial "heritage".

If the Ukrainian army manages to liberate the south of Ukraine and begin the release of Donbass from the Russian troops and their mercenaries, if the Russian army and Ukrainian collaborators are of general defeat, the issue of release from the invaders of Crimea may be no longer military but political. We will have a weakening deal with Russia, which will be important for the war, and not trying to continue hostilities in a disadvantaged situation. But, again, only in this case.