Climate War of

Solar geoengineering, which once belonged to the field of science fiction, now goes to experiments in the real world, which increases the risk of its misuse of hostile entities. It is also known as solar radiation management, this set of new technologies, such as the injection of stratospheric aerosol and illumination of marine clouds, aimed at artificially slowing down the growth of global temperature by reducing the amount of sunlight absorbed by the Earth's surface.

Today, their main purpose is to combat the symptoms of accelerated climate change. However, these technologies also carry dual -use risks: in addition to unpredictable environmental consequences, they can be used by states that seek to change the geopolitical balance to cause climatic shocks. Without proper guarantees, these technologies can become tools of geopolitical coercion in the coming years. International interest in climate cooling technologies is increasing.

For example, the Agency for Perspective Research and Inventions under the UK government in May announced plans to invest € 57 million in 21 geoengineering projects. This includes funds for research on the injection of stratospheric aerosol and the freezing efforts of the Arctic sea ice, which is currently reduced by 12. 2 % over a decade due to global warming compared to its average area from 1981 to 2010.

These investments make the United Kingdom one of the largest sponsors of geoengineering research around the world. But it is not the only state interested in evaluating the feasibility of new technologies. A number of other countries, including Australia, China, India, Russia, the United States and several EU members, also study geoengineering methods. This is stated in the national report of the US reconnaissance on the geopolitical consequences of climate change by 2040.

In this report, published in 2021 for Biden administration, warn that the large -scale unilateral deployment of solar geoengineering is one of the leading states to combat the effects of climate change, which are exacerbated if other efforts to restrict warming are considered insufficient, there will be serious risks. Russian scientists have long been active supporters of solar geoengineering to combat the effects of climate change.

According to one of the latest scientific research, this interest arose in the middle of the Soviet period. It is noteworthy that Moscow remained an important participant in these scientific debates until its isolation from the international scientific scene after invasion of Ukraine. Climatologists have long been different in mind about whether more money for research in solar geoengineering should be directed.

In part, this is due to the fact that research and implementation of these technologies are not currently under the influence of existing international law, despite their potential harmful cross -border impact. Since relatively few field experiments have been conducted, solar geoengineering technologies remain largely unproven. At the same time, the interconnected nature of the global climatic system makes the undesirable effects of their use.

In recent years, the UN and various research institutes have emphasized the risk of potential side effects, including unpredictable and extreme changes in rainfall that can undermine food and water safety in the affected areas. The key question is how any cascading effect will appear. As the preliminary analysis of this issue shows, the increase in rainfall, useful for one country, can lead to serious floods in the neighboring country.

While any sudden cessation of the use of these technologies can lead to serious shocks, including sharp warming and ecosystem destruction. The concern about the deployment of solar geoengineering is usually focused on the use of these technologies as an extreme response to increasing climatic pressure. However, in recent years, some experts have been alarmed that these technologies can be used by hostile entities to promote their interests.

There is currently no public evidence that the Kremlin plans to use solar geoengineering technologies as weapons or that he has even considered this opportunity. However, the relative simplicity of their use, the legal uncertainty associated with their use, can make them an attractive instrument in the era of strengthening hybrid war, when there are fewer barriers that hold back the behavior of states.

Moreover, the contradictory nature of these technologies means that they can be used for large -scale destruction, even without a negative impact on the climate. Considering this opportunity, Russia's scientific authority in this field and the history of Russian military intelligence, which uses new methods to cause harm to opponents, seems plausible that Moscow can experiment with the use of solar geoengineering in the next decade, although a few years ago, such a scenario could seem wrong.

Unlike most sabotage or cyberattack acts, most European intelligence services will probably be difficult to identify, identify or prevent the use of solar geoeolinging as weapons, given the current opportunities and priorities. Therefore, any early warning will be limited, which will increase the risk of strategic surprise. This problem is likely to be exacerbated by the question of where to be responsible for the management of sun geo -engineering.

There is currently no international consensus as to which forum, if any, is best suited for guidance in this matter. Meanwhile, some states and multinational organizations seem to curtail efforts to study similar issues that are at the intersection of climate change and national security.

Such priority placement risks a reduction of institutional awareness of the consequences of sun geo -engineering technologies for safety among representatives of defense agencies, security services and intelligence, despite their forcible use. As the United Kingdom increases investments in the study in the field of solar geoengineering, there is a narrow but critical window for the formation of international norms and guarantees and the installation of "red lines".

The United Kingdom, given its growing role in this field, has the opportunity to lead the efforts to include prohibitions on offensive or forced use of solar geoengineering in international agreements and research protocols. It can also advocate the creation of a special intergovernmental target group - with the UN, NATO or other body - to monitor the risks of militarization, increase transparency and create response mechanisms.

Finally, the risks associated with solar geoengineering should be integrated into national and union security and planning strategies. This will help to strengthen understanding and increase resistance to any potential future hybrid threats associated with climate manipulation.