Putin wants at the talk table? Here are six conditions for this

Panic is now slowly spreading to simple Russians, and many of them are reported to escape from Crimea and Belgorod. Video of the day this shift in the dynamics of the six -month conflict was clearly recorded in the Kremlin. The war is far from completion, but against the background of a clear growth of Ukraine's courage and rapid weakening of Russian offensive operations, Putin shows signs of a desire to return to the negotiating table.

Although the decisive military victory now seems to be unclear beyond Russia's possibilities, whether the war will go to a dead end or Ukraine will be able to force Russia to retreat. Unlike Russia, Ukraine has large reserves of soldiers and does not seem to face the inevitable mobilization problems. However, the Ukrainian military is still strongly dependent on the country's western partners in the weapon necessary for a serious counter -offensive.

In Berlin, Paris and Washington, there were those who had previously feared that giving Ukraine a more powerful weapon would provoke Putin to a new escalation. Instead, in recent weeks, Russia has partially removed the blockade from the Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea, while expressing their willingness to allow international inspectors to visit the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant in the south of Ukraine, which is now under the control of Russia.

Meanwhile, the high-ranking Kremlin emissaries, such as the former German Chancellor Gerhard Schreoder, said Putin's readiness for negotiations. Putin may understand that he is at risk of losing and trying to restore his position diplomatic. Until now, Ukrainian officials have diminished the prospects for any high-level peace talks.

However, since the war is not visible, Ukraine will probably face the increase in international pressure in the coming months, in order to deal with new diplomatic initiatives. Therefore, it is extremely important to clarify Ukraine in advance. The main concern is that Putin will try to ensure the ceasefire as soon as possible and consolidate his achievements, as he did with two 2014 and 2015 Minsk Agreements.

And it would simply prepare the ground for the New War in the coming years, as soon as Russia would have led its wounds and carried out a military regroup. As President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy was rightly insisted, the first and most obvious condition for future peace talks is the return of all occupied Ukrainian territory. These are Crimea and the so -called People's Republics of East of Ukraine, as well as regions occupied over the last six months.

The restoration of Ukraine's territorial integrity is the only way to ensure a sustainable peace. Secondly, Ukraine must receive reliable security guarantees. Kyiv can no longer accept security guarantees, similar to the Memorandum registered in the Pravchny Budapest Memorandum since December 1994. Putin's ignoring all international agreements shows that the only reliable security guarantee is NATO membership plus a strong Ukrainian army.

Considering Ukraine's outstanding successes in the present war, NATO should be proud of what offers the country an accelerated path to membership, which has just been admitted to the Alliance of Finland and Sweden. If NATO is unable to reach consensus on Ukraine, the same iron security guarantees from individual leading states will be required, but they may not be enough to dispel the fears of Kiev. Third, Russia has to pay military reparations for the destruction that it has caused Ukraine.

The Kiev School of Economics has collected a database and estimated direct physical losses in the first months of an invasion of $ 110 billion, while Ukraine's GDP should fall by at least 35%, or $ 70 billion, in 2022. The final account concerning material damage alone seems to be much higher.

Western governments should promote the funding of post -war restoration of Ukraine by confiscation of $ 316 billion foreign exchange reserves belonging to the Russian Central Bank and frozen from the first days of the invasion. Other sources of Russian financing should be identified and legal mechanisms to direct this money to Ukraine. The provision of Russian reparations should be one of Ukraine's key requirements for the country's western partners.

Fourth, the Black Sea Fleet of Russia should remove its naval base from the Crimean port city of Sevastopol forever. The Russian invasion of Ukraine began with the capture of Crimea in 2014. This operation relied largely on Russian forces stationed in Sevastopol. By the way, the Kremlin unilaterally withdrew the Kharkiv Agreement of 2010, which extended the lease of Sevastopol by Russia until 2042.

Fifth, from the beginning of the invasion of Russia, at least two million Ukrainians have entered Russia, many of whom have suffered forced deportation. All Ukrainians who wish to get this to leave Russia. Thousands of Ukrainian children exported to Russia and subjected to illegal adoption should also be returned to Ukraine. Sixth, Russian soldiers and officials who committed serious war crimes should be faced with the International Criminal Court in the Hague.

Fortunately, the Ukrainian authorities have already started a very detailed process of registration and documentation of military crimes of Russia. These six conditions should be the basis of any possible peace talks. The event should fully support Ukraine at this critical moment and overcome its fear of humiliation and provocation of Putin.

The testimony of the last six months show that, having faced with a decisive opposition, the Russian dictator will retreat faster than he will go to escalation. Therefore, Western leaders should focus on giving Ukraine weapons he needs to win in the war, as well as to give Moscow a clear signal that sanctions will remain valid until Russia fulfills all Ukraine conditions.

First of all, the event should avoid temptation to make concessions in exchange for what is likely to be nothing more than a pause in combat. Ukrainians understand the unpromising attempts to compromise with the Kremlin. They admit that the war will end only when Russia is defeated. Ukraine's international partners also have to agree with this opinion and to speak to Moscow a single front on the eve of any future peace talks.