The election is over if there will be a war. How will Taiwan and China's relationship change after winning a price

At the same time, the Hou is described how the candidate who would do the opposite and make efforts to "reunite the Motherland". The reality is that both William Lai and Hou Yui - during the election campaign were maintained relatively restrained rhetoric, sometimes similar. For example, both believe that there is no need for the recognition of independence, since the Republic of China and so functions as an independent state. Both do not support the formula "one country or two systems".

Both also opposed the status quo in the Taiwanese Strait. William Lai after victory, speaking to the supporters, that's what he stated. Both also stand for further trade and economic cooperation with the PRC, although in this aspect the views diverge on the acceptable scale of this cooperation. It is the close trade and economic relations that are one of the factors that hold back the supporters of independence.

After all, stable economic relations with the PRC in billions of dollars are one of the important reasons that allow the Taiwanese economy to develop. In addition, in the case of independence, China does not have to resort to military intervention. It will be enough to organize a quarantine or blockade of the island, which is 97% dependent on imports of energy: LNG is imported from Qatar, oil - from Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, coal - from Australia.

China has resources to block marine communications, in particular, in the South Chinese Sea, where many artificial islands have been built in the last 10 years, which operate as monitoring bases. China will in the near future focus on solving internal socio-economic problems, eliminating sensitivity in competition with the United States and maintaining a stable dialogue with states on topics that are of mutual interest.

In addition, China is unlikely to decide on an initiative step, and will take radical actions as a response if the marked red lines are broken. At the same time, the patrol and monitoring of the duct, regular disturbances of Taiwan airspace will continue, but not so much as methods of intimidation policy for Taiwan, but as signals for the US.

Beijing, which is in no hurry to make a decision on Taiwan, because, from the point of view of the Communist Party of China, Taiwan is an integral part of the PRC, it is afraid that the states will use the island as an outpost, as during the Cold War, the USSR used Cuba. There is currently no solution for the Taiwanese issue, since a military operation (which is not technically or geopolitically or economically easy) will be ready and has a whole list of very serious risks to Beijing.

The peaceful "reunification" is also unlikely, since Taiwan has formed a new nation in recent decades - Taiwan, who do not regard mainland China as the ancestral home and do not accept any of the possible scenarios of peaceful accession. This is taken into account by the Taiwan political elites. Save status quo is the most appropriate scenario for all parties: for Taiwan, for the USA, for China. However, this is just one of the ten possible scenarios.