Against Ukraine and the whole world. What benefits the Iran from the Russo-Ukrainian War receives

The fact is that the world was unable to unite against Russian aggression and thus promote peace as a long -term phenomenon on the entire planet.

Unambiguously on the side of Ukraine NATO and the EU, which have proven their devotion to the ideas of peaceful development of human society, as well as several other allies of the United States, which have imposed rigid sanctions against the Russian Federation as an aggressor state and assist Ukraine with weapons to defend their right to exist in internationally recognized borders .

Much of the countries of the world (and democratic also) rhetorically condemned Russian aggression on various diplomatic venues, but this is where their resistance to violation of the world order ended. Some even sided with the Russian Federation both diplomatically (opposed to condemning its actions or holding) and financially. So far, Iran is the only country whose aggressor country support has become a weapon.

Starting a full-scale invasion, the Kremlin tried to submit it to the international community not as an act of destruction of international law, but rather as a restoration of the world order established by the results of World War II, which was "unfairly violated by Anglo-Saxons". Hence the word "special operation", because after the Second World War special operations, in particular in Europe were conducted, but "there were no wars".

However, the more Ukraine resisted, the more the outlines of violations and leveling of international law have become more likely, especially when it came to the annexation of the conquered territories. This pushed away from the Russian Federation of countries that were ready to swallow "special operation", but do not want to demolish the existing international order, instead attracted states that would prefer to radically overlap the world system - to realize the world revolution.

In the human society, revolutionary changes are sought by people who have not been able to find their place in the existing structure, as well as states. The Islamic Republic of Iran, which has been under the sanctions of the Western powers for over four decades, naturally seeks the destruction of the existing world system, in which the rules of the game determines the collective event.

When the Islamic Revolution took place in Iran in 1979, the world was divided between two poles and on this confrontation, the revolutionary power of Iran sincerely sought to become the third who had to benefit from where two beaten. However, history has unfolded in the most disadvantageous for revolutionaries-islamists. In the Cold War, the forces of the most hostile to Iran won, which prepared for the Islamic Republic the role of the rogue on the world stage.

Tehran lived "without hope" for the solemnity of the ninth and two thousand years. And these times came. First, the Arab Spring, which resulted in the fall of governments that have been in power in their countries for decades. It was not so profitable for Iran as it gave rise to the same "cloudy water" - a window of opportunity that Iran intended to use. For example, the coming to power in some Islamist countries a priori was profitable of the Islamic Republic, surrounded by secular regimes.

In 2014, the annexation of Crimea from which the Ukrainian-Russian War began and the challenge of Moscow world order for Tehran was more symbolic and influenced its policy in the medium term. In 2014, the Activation of the Islamic State (first the Islamic State of Iraq and Levant - IDIL) was more practical for the Islamic Republic, which finally violated stability in the region and allowed Iran to act. The last decade has become the most successful for the Iran Islamic Republic for its existence.

After the years of isolation, Iran began to carry out true expansion in the region, consolidating with it almost all supporters of the Shiite direction of Islam. The fact is that the Islamic state is supporters of another direction of the Muslim religion - Satism. Due to their virginity, they pose a real threat to all Shiys who would find themselves in the territories controlled by Islamists.

In such circumstances, Shiite Iran became a significant factor in the territories where the threat of representatives of IDIL - in Iraq, Syria, Yemen and to some extent in the entire Muslim world. Iran earlier supported various Shiite movements, the strongest of which was Hezbolla from Lebanon. However, after 2014, their activities became much larger.

Iran's activity in the integration of the Shiite Movement of Regions has actually increased his status to the level of regional leader, which led to a direct conflict with a contender for leadership from Sunite - Saudi Arabia. The situation was regularly exacerbated and even resolved the war, however, not straight, but through intermediaries (so -called proxy) in Yemen. Last fall, the whole world expected the deployment of a direct war between the hegemon of the Middle East.

Riyadh has even called specific dates in Riyadh. Therefore, the March restoration of diplomatic relations between states became a real information bomb. Regarding the participation and potential benefits in this process of the People's Republic of China, it is a comparison with Henry Kisinger's "shuttle diplomacy" when the USSR was eliminated from the Middle East (only the United States can be in its role).

However, the senior political analyst of the Qatar edition of Al Jazyer Marvan Bishar calls for not to rush with the conclusions, because Riyadh is hardly ready to completely turn away from Washington. Rather, this initiative is not so much to move to peace as to suspend the escalation from the "most correct government of Israel in its history.

" Senior Researcher at the Center for International Relations of the California University Dalia Das Kai notes that even Iranian Arab countries in the region are still opposed to the exacerbation of the situation. The same united Arab Emirates are afraid that they can be victims of strokes, because they are between both potentially warring parties. Also, no one in the region is interested in increasing the dominance of the US and Israel, which will certainly happen in the event of conflict.

Therefore, despite all the contradictions, Tehran is still trying to involve in different diplomatic sites. Therefore, the restoration of relations between the leaders of the Sunni and Shiite worlds has become a logical continuation of this complex diplomatic chain. For China, this is usually a step forward in promoting world hegemony, although not as large as it may seem at first glance. The consolidation of all Shiites was the shortest way to the success of Persian theocracy.

However, he also became the ceiling of opportunities for the Shiite power of Iran. After all, in the region where the majority of the population-Arab-Sunnuts, the idea of ​​the Persian-Swiite dominance cannot be extremely popular. If in 2014, in the years of isolated Tehran, they were genuinely rejoiced in the very fact of entering the regional political Olympus, then in 2020 Iran's dominance was not enough.

Tehran is claiming leadership in the whole Muslim world, and this requires putting things broader than Shiite doctrine. And over the last three years, Iran has significantly advanced in this matter. In the struggle for hegemony in the conditional south, the competition of Iran is all the same Saudi Arabia and India. The New Delhi asset is a powerful economy, a millennial culture and nuclear weapons. That is, the advantage over Iran on all fronts.

However, the unsuccessful Russian aggression gave Tehran a significant and unexpected trump card. During the Cold War, a stereotype has emerged in the world. Both poles were sources of ideas and behavior. It did not always work. The same religious Arabs did not always understand cooperation with the atheistic USSR. However, the principle of technological advantage has always worked. The USSR and the US were eternal sources of technological support for potential allies.

And while the technological parity was stored, the status of Quo in the popularity of both camps was stored. That is, every country that wanted to intensify technologically - supported the US or the USSR and received access to technology (first of all interested in the military sphere). And here in 2022, Iran spread the wheel of history, giving Russia its drones. That is, it turned the direction of movement of technology for all 180 degrees.

To fully understand the situation, imagine that the United States, for example, during the Vietnam War, sought military aid to Chile. It has already been said and transferred about the scientific and technical failure of the Russian Federation, but in this case an important fact of the exaltation of Iran. The same India is one of the largest consumers of Russian weapons, and Iran also supplies weapons of the Russian Federation itself.

This takes Iran to a new level in the planetary system of international relations and the Muslim world, especially. How many can you name Muslim countries with your own MIC? Moreover, which of them can supply weapons to a country that has recently been considered the second army in the world? A powerful and high -quality MIC in the region, where practically constantly continue wars, active conflicts are a significant factor in political influence.

Iran's technological potential is considered to be a Trump in Middle Eastern diplomacy Professor of the University of National Defense Havat Bahgat and Professor of the University of Catholic in Milan Abdolrasul Divsallar.

In their view, the ability to stimulate the latest military technologies of its proxy, which is present in almost all countries of the region, has become a powerful argument for the countries of the region to remain in diplomatic dialogue with Iran and refrain from fully supporting Israel in this confrontation. It is essentially a shift in order for Iran that is at least a window of opportunity.

Russian aggression is a true shake of the world system that the Islamic state simply could not help but use. The Analyst of the British School of International Relations in Andrewsi St. Martha Fulelan emphasizes that Iran's cooperation with Russia is accidental, it began because of the desire to preserve Bashar Assad in Syria, although even here, both regimes had differences about the ultimate goals.

The same is happening now within the framework of the Russo-Ukrainian War, which can be safely counted by Iran, despite the fact that he has no direct interest in the victory of the Russian Federation. The director of the Gulf Research Group at the Middle East Research and Strategic Studies in Iran Javad Hayran Nia notes that Russia's aggression against Ukraine is first and foremost a sign of NATO weakening. This was stated, in particular by the supreme leader of Iran Ayatol Ali Khameney.

Therefore, Tehran will support Moscow as much as it will destroy the current global systems on the ruins of which the Islamic Republic seeks to build its own happiness. Tehran may be considered the greatest achievement over the last three years by the establishment of diplomatic relations with no less religious but Sunni authorities to Afghanistan.

Despite the fact that the geographically taliban is in the other side (east of Iran), this step is very important for Tehran, because a potential alliance with the Taliban is a precedent exit beyond Shiite Islam. And to move in that direction is where, in the end of the ancient Persia, its borders reached the territory of modern Kazakhstan. However, in the medium term Iran, as well as everyone needs to be careful.

After all, the transition of the world from the established rules to the principle "wins the stronger" obliges to remember another principle of the jungle - always find the one who has more acute teeth. In recent months, there has been severity of relations with Azerbaijan. Ilham Aliyev, inspired by the victory over Armenia more than two years ago, is already calling Azerbaijanis who live in Iran with a single nation with all Azerbaijanis.