Liman, time Yar, Pokrovsk: The Russian Federation believes that Ukraine will not be able to withstand the offensive - ISW

The Russian occupation group has been shifting accentage operations in recent weeks in recent weeks to areas such as Lyman, Yar and Pokrovsk. At the beginning of 2024, a priority for the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation was the capture of Avdiivka, at the same time as less intense operations on the Kupyansk - Svatovo - Kreminna line. Subsequently, a roll was observed towards the estuary direction. At the same time, the pace of operations in the Avdiivka area decreased.

Now the main efforts are aimed at capturing the time ravine. Despite the fact that the Russian group is likely not to have opportunities for simultaneous large -scale and effective attacks in several directions, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation can make several offensive efforts to stretch the defense of the Armed Forces in the lack of artillery and air defense. The current structure of Russian offensive operations enables units involved in less intense operations, rest and recover.

Then they can activate efforts in the next operational direction and make the Armed Forces transfer defense resources to other areas throughout the theater of hostilities. Hence the vulnerability in defense, what the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation can use. Russians can accumulate reserves of operational and strategic levels to maintain current offensive operations and expected spring and summer offensive.

ISW analysts believe that these reserves are unlikely to be ready to act as the breakthrough forces of the first or second echelon, as long as the funds are needed in Ukraine. The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation will probably attract these reserves to replenish or strengthen existing compounds and continue offensive operations, where the main role is given to infantry with some selective mechanized blows.

At the same time, if the United States does not restore military assistance and the Armed Forces will still lack artillery and air defense, even insufficiently prepared and equipped Russians will be able to successfully occur. Recall that the Lieutenant of the Armed Forces with the call sign "Alex" in his Telegram-channel "Officer" on April 14 announced the threat that the robot could be in the ring of Russian troops.