When the war is over. What do Western partners' conversations about counter -offensive and negotiations mean

The focus found out whether such negotiations were possible and when they could happen. It is obvious that the West, albeit in public, already pushes Ukraine to peace. Perhaps not to the straight lines from the Russian Federation, but through intermediaries-conditionally in Minsk-3 or Istanbul-2. The reason: many in the EU and the US are tired of war, and their leaders need to show a successful result - to stop the war in Ukraine. And it is better to do it in 2023.

Ukrainian experts agree that Ukraine may not withstand a protracted war on exhaustion, but politically Ukrainian authorities are not profitable to compromise while a statement of release of all territories has been made. "Ukraine will never be a victory for Russia. Never," said the United States President Joe Biden in Poland, the next day after an unexpected visit to Kiev.

A few days ago, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken repeated that Russia was losing its invading war and supporting Ukraine in preparation for a major counter -offensive. And this position is supported by European colleagues, who may not be so clearly expressed, but they will declare the advantage of Ukraine. And this idea did not appear immediately after a full -scale invasion, but later, when it became obvious that Ukraine was able to resist the "second army of the world.

" In this context, the most discussed topic is the Ukrainian counter -offensive. Some sources even called a specific start date - April 30, 2023. In general, the documents indicating that the offensive will be made by the Ukrainian 10th operational corps, consisting of nine brigades, which are now re-re-elected by the US and allies. However, the Ukrainian intelligence subsequently denied the information, calling the numbers unrealistic, and information collected from open sources.

Like, only the above command of Ukraine has information whether the armed forces now have a decisive advantage for the attack. Despite the fact that foreign partners often repeat that only Ukraine will decide what the victory will look, in fact, internationalists can see everything differently. And above all, they think that the right to recommend what a victory can be, they give them the fact that they provide unprecedented support - military and financial.

In other words, the event seeks to control the escalation that is unacceptable to it. That is, to warn of the complete defeat of Russia with unpredictable consequences. Experts suggest that Americans and NATO partners say that Ukraine will decide everything, they mean that the forces used in Ukraine may be exclusively Ukrainian. The intervention of the third force, for example, the NATO Army is not discussed.

Although there are cases in history where after intervention from the outside of the war stopped. This was the case in Serbia and Kosovo, when NATO forces were fired at Belgrade in 1999. But Russia, unlike Serbia, is a nuclear state. Therefore, experts do not see a scenario for which the Western Alliance, led by the United States, would actively attack Russia. There is no need for NATO to participate in unprovable actions against Russia.

Political scientist Viktor Bobirenko said in a comment to Focus that the topic of negotiations after the counter -offensive was sounded in December last year, when President Volodymyr Zelenskyy came to Washington and met Biden. "On the eve of the New Year, Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba said that Crimea could be released not only by the military means but also by diplomatic. Compromise is acceptable for Ukrainian society, ”Bobirenko says.

Part of such reflections may be the statement of the deputy head of the Presidential Office Andriy Sibiga that Ukraine will be ready for negotiations regarding the future occupied Crimea with Russia, if the Armed Forces of Ukraine hold a successful counter -offensive and reach the administrative border of the peninsula with the Kherson region.

"If we manage to achieve our strategic goals on the battlefield and when we are on the administrative border with Crimea, we are ready to open a diplomatic page to discuss this issue . . . This does not mean that we exclude the path of liberation (peninsula - ed. ) Our army," - he told in an interview with Financial Times, and later received a portion of criticism from society and journalists. Meanwhile, 82% of Ukrainians are confident in Ukraine's ability to repel the Russian Federation attack.

This is evidenced by the results of a survey conducted by Gradus Research. The President of the Center for Analysis of European Policy in Washington Alina Polyakova during discussing US policy options in Ukraine that obviously made a choice at this stage: Ukraine receives weapons, but it should be enough for a counter -offensive during the spring and summer season.

"It is expected that Ukrainians will make serious success in the counter -offensive with the weapons they now have and then we will see where they will be in the fall. Because the US is approaching the elections, the UK is changing. The Russians are well aware of this political dynamics as Ukrainians And we do not have a budget for 2024, so we do not know that the US government will be ready to give Ukrainians next year. So this is a very decisive year, "Polyakova adds.

Viktor Bobirenko also assumes that active actions at the front can stop in the fall of 2023: "Then everyone will try to organize a truce. So profitable of the event, we will be pushing before. Brazilian president will be given by ten more, orban or macron will tell something, all sorts scholars. The script will be called: "It is necessary to stop shooting.

" US general, former Commander of the United NATO Armed Forces in Europe, Philip Bridlav says that all conflicts are indeed ending at the negotiation table. But the situation is highly dependent on the battlefield . "We're not yet sure how events can develop. When asked, I usually say that this war will end the way the event wants. Western policy will be absolutely determined by Ukraine or defeat, "he is sure.

The American general speaks of two strategic defeats of Russia - in the north, near Kiev, and northeast of Kharkiv, recalls the Kherson and Zaporizhzhya regions:" Russians The defeat in Kherson, which was interrupted in the winter, "tactical struggle in and around Bakhmut. What happens if we continue to do what we do now, that is, provide them with enough to stay on the battlefield and stay capable but not enough to win. This is a much more risky end.

But still the conditions on the battlefield at the time would have become the basis for the conclusion of peace, "the general adds. Obviously, Russia tries to keep as much already passionate territories as possible to have as much favorable positions during negotiations. We will end with a counter -offensive, - Bobirenko comments. - But let's say - we reflect the south, go out to Chongar, stop near the Crimea.

Further, it is obvious that there will be an operational pause - we will not be able to step forever. And during her what? Negotiations. They will definitely push us. All societies are overwhelmed by the war, including our allies. No one will say this - neither Soltz, Macron nor Biden, but will not be denied the return of Crimea, Donetsk, Lugansk - they say, there are millions of disloyal to you, so it is possible to stop.

They will say that we lead UN troops to the demarcation line, we will discuss the question of fifty years: whose Crimea? In the end, the collision line will become such a demarcation line as between North and South Korea, a demilitarized area between territories controlled by Ukraine and Russia. " The former permanent representative of Ukraine to the UN Volodymyr Yelchenko says that now the issues of peacekeepers are inappropriate. In the interests of the Russian Federation.

The expert explains: the introduction of the UN peacekeepers, NATO will never miss Russia, it will advocate for the creation of a new contingent from representatives, such as Belarus, Syria, Eritrea or Iran. Trying to plant the parties at the table of negotiations will mean that pause after the pause after The counter -offensive will continue. Then the war will turn into a protracted struggle for exhaustion - the conflict will be frozen, a shaky truce is announced.

"A more likely scenario is a protracted struggle that will result in both parties depleted, but will not want to admit a defeat that will lead to a frozen conflict or possible difficult truce. In which journalists also think about what the war in Ukraine will end. And so it will be until Putin's mode is stored. Currently, the President of Russia, who initiated a full -scale invasion with the purpose of Ukraine, is not ready to stop because this war is decisive for him.

Putin put her reputation on her. And the more he loses, the losses, the more difficult it is to retreat. Because he was used to winning, realizing the ideas of keeping the region under his authority. It was in Chechnya, Georgia, Moldova. Putin is governed by the desire to restore the imperial prestige of Russia and to correct the competing, in his opinion, historical mistakes.

Experts say Putin is aware that defeat on the battlefield can lead to the destruction of not only the regime but also Russia. It was so in the nineteenth century, when Russia lost in the Crimean War, after which its power began to fade, and in the twentieth, when after the defeat in Afghanistan, the Soviet Union, the basis of which, was the basis of Russia.

At the same time, it remains a relevant but not closed question, is the event ready for the full defeat of Putin? Experts have repeatedly emphasized that no, because at different stages, world leaders, despite statements in support of Ukraine, tried to keep Putin's face. "But now the opponent of the script and the truce will be President Vladimir Zelensky. He understands that the freezing of the conflict will attempt to normalize life, abolish martial law, after which elections should take place.

This fall is parliamentary, next spring - presidential. In support of the idea of ​​victory of Ukraine over Russia in society, Ukrainians will not forgive Zelensky that Ukraine has not returned Crimea, left Donetsk and Luhansk regions. We have a society ready to fight for a victorious end. Accordingly, any peaceful negotiations will collapse the rating of Zelensky, " Viktor Bobirenko notes.

We will not forget that at one time the President stated that Ukraine will not go for negotiations with Russia before the liberation of all territories, but will not speak with such a leader as Vladimir Putin. Of course, such a confrontation cannot last forever - resources, human and financial, will not be enough for anyone. Because the way out is that the Ukrainian authorities can demonstrate at least a partial victory.

The fact that Kherson and Zaporizhzhya regions will be released, no one in Ukraine is in doubt. "Now society is wound, everyone is waiting for a counter -offensive, everyone is waiting for the days when ours will start, and everyone is waiting for a successful result. Our dream is cementing society, it forgots Zelensky all the blunders," Bobireko continues. " can really become likely. " But the expert notes that it is likely not to mean real.

But at this point, it is important to mention the documents that were fused from the Pentagon. Because they can indicate a restraining factor. They conclude that even if Ukraine won "significant" territories and causes Russian forces of unacceptable losses, which is unlikely, according to American intelligence, it will not lead to negotiations.

For Ukraine, the document says, the war on exhaustion will lead to disappointment within the country and "criticism, which will increase the likelihood of changing management. " And it is unlikely that Bankova is not aware of, which is why they are probably trying to find an acceptable option for further development of events when Ukraine can declare victory, but this victory will be something acceptable to Russia.