Negotiations without the USA, front without guarantees: will the Russian Federation go on a new offensive after a summit in London

The UK Ministry of Foreign Affairs reported the postponement of the meeting without specifying the reasons or a new date. However, it is stated that lower -rank officials will continue in closed format. The cancellation of negotiations occurred against the background of reports of pressure on the part of Donald Trump's administration in Kiev to recognize Crimea and four partially occupied regions in Russian.

Although the White House did not formally confirmed these requirements, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky said the day before that Ukraine would not be advocated for such conditions because it contrary to its Constitution. While the US and Russia are in direct negotiations, European leaders are concerned about the possible exclusion of them from the process. European diplomats are afraid that any recognition of Crimea by Russia from the US can undermine the unity of NATO and the EU.

In this context, the prospects for peaceful settlement remain uncertain, and the risk of disrupting the negotiation is increasing. Given that under the cover of the Easter Armistice, the enemy not only stopped fire, but also used a pause on the front to regroup, strengthen positions and prepare for new offensives, the focus was understood - what could turn into the front between Ukraine and the Russian Federation.

Russia is probably preparing a new large -scale offensive operation in eastern Ukraine in June or July 2025. This was reported by Ukrainian military experts, referring to the data of intelligence and observation of the enemy's activity. According to military expert Oleg Zhdanov, there are now signs of hidden mobilization in Russia.

Although there is no significant receipt of new equipment on the front, Russian plants are actively producing tanks, self -propelled artillery installations and other armored vehicles. This technique is likely to accumulate in the rear for further use in offensive operations. In addition, legislation has been changed in Russia, which allows conscripts to sign a contract the next day after taking the oath.

According to Ukrainian intelligence, up to 30% of recruits sign contracts in the first month of service, and in half a year this figure reaches 50%. Zhdanov believes that the main directions of the possible offensive can be Liman and Toretsky, in order to complete the capture of Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Also, the offensive in the Zaporozhye direction is not excluded.

Instead, in the Kherson direction, the prospects for Russia are currently minimal because of the difficulties with the forcing of the Dnieper. But the intensification of the enemy on the front is not directly related to the negotiations between Ukraine and the Russian Federation, because according to military analyst Dmitry Snegirev, the Russian army does not leave attempts to complete the occupation of the Luhansk region.

Also, Russian troops try to cut logistics in the directions of Pokrovsk - Konstantinovka and Pokrovsk - Pavlograd. Former security officer of the Security Service of Ukraine, military expert Ivan Stupak believes that in Russia they were surprised at how everything is unfolding around negotiations. "I am sure that they were expecting that the process would run on the rails, and they would be able to give it to some" small victory ".

Even they did not expect that everything would collapse so quickly," says focus the expert. And given such a "unexpected situation" with negotiations, the Russian Federation simply does not have opportunities for those "surprises" on the front. According to Stupak, the last six months of Russian military experts complain about conflicts in the army and lack of people.

"And again, I return to the thesis that I repeatedly voiced: they are associated with the fact that because of the great losses in some areas of the front, they can expose other directions. It can realistically lead to a recurrence of the situation, as in the Kharkiv region of 2022 - the flank will fall. This is very afraid of So carefully, I do not see the real opportunities for them to open another front.

However, according to the expert, it is impossible to finally declare the disruption of negotiations, even if the US really gets out of the process. Other countries may enter the process. Stupak believes that these can be the countries of the Middle East-more chances in countries such as Saudi Arabia, the South African Republic, Turkey. "Will the United States allow anyone else to take these laurels? It is an interesting question. Everything is said here, and wants, and collapses.

On the one hand, Trump plays this game - he is emotional, he may suddenly say," Everything, I don't want, I will not, "and on the other hand - if someone else can squee The expert sums up. We will remind, the focus understood why peace talks of Ukraine, the US and European countries at the ministerial level have been abolished, and how the process of peaceful settlement on the Russian-Ukrainian war will continue to develop.