Complications for the Armed Forces: What do Russian troops do during the time ravine and in the reeds

The situation began to exacerbate for several extreme days and clearly not in favor of the Armed Forces, says military analyst Konstantin Mashovets. He describes in detail what is happening in the two most important areas - Kramatorsk and Pokrovsky. The situation began to exacerbate for several extreme days and clearly not in favor of the Armed Forces.

Obviously, the Command of the Grouping of the Troops (UV) of the enemy "south" in the direction of making their basic efforts, which is now-times of Yar and adjacent areas, seeks to achieve more or less significant success in the near future. As far as I understand, this implies it precisely the "time in the ravine", which is sober, today, today does not look at all unbroken for the enemy.

He has performed a series of attackers for several extreme days for several extreme days, in particular: Yes, it is obvious that the command of the "South" in his desire "to achieve a significant result" found himself in the face of a certain dealem The usual opportunity is to "bypass and cover" the defense area of ​​the enemy (the Armed Forces) as the most effective method of decisive defeat of the enemy's troops.

In other words, bypassing the "flanks", to cover the area of ​​defense of the Armed Forces in the city of Yariv and around it - simply does not work.

It remains - either continue this kind of attempts on a relatively wide front (which is obviously associated with some difficulties), hoping in the future to acquire the necessary configuration of the LBZ in the chosen direction, which will allow to organize and take action "on the environment" or try One fast but powerful and concentrated "blow" on some small, but convenient area, still break the enemy defense system and thus disorganize it, having the opportunity to quickly develop success in its "depth".

As far as I understand, the command of the "South" in the case of "Time" has chosen the second option (well, it is not surprising, the area of ​​defense of the Armed Forces in this city and around it is very inconvenient in the sense of keeping long and slow actions to cover it).

At the moment, probably the enemy is preparing to break through the forest, located south of the other area of ​​the city (Novyi neighborhood), through the channel "Siverskyi Donets - Donbas" (in this place, somewhere within a kilometer, it runs underground The ability of the enemy to exclude the need to force it) and still "break" in the time of the ravine, in the direction or to the neighborhood "New" or "October".

As far as I understand, the enemy command plans to involve certain units of the 331th PDP of the 98th PDD and the main forces of the 11th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade (ODSBR) in this case. It is possible that for the "development" of the planned success and fixing the results in the battle will be introduced another Mototsrilets brigade (OMSBR) of the enemy, for example-the 85th OMSBR of the 2nd AK. More likely, it can happen in the next 1-2 days.

In this sense, as for me, 3 things will be important: the first two things will determine directly-will the enemy attempt "break into the time" in the adventure, will turn, whether it still has some chance of success. The third will determine the ability of the enemy to organize the offensive not only to the north of the road T-0504 "through the forest", but also at the same time south of it, gradually increasing the volume of forces and means for this breakthrough.

It is possible that the events in these "shivers" will be able to fundamentally affect the further course of the events of the Armed Forces in the area of ​​Yar. It looks like the enemy manages to realize this plan, his advanced units in the forest have almost reached the mentioned channel, and it is in the place where it flows underground, and obviously, in order to finish "breakthrough through the forest ", the enemy command will make every effort.

Even at the expense of actions under the Bogdanivka Directorate - Kalinovka, or on the turn of the Kigshchiyivka - Andreevka. The enemy clearly "concentrates" in the direction of Ivanovo - the time of the ravine in order to "finish his breakthrough in the city.

" Where the enemy, for several extreme days, it was possible to achieve more or less significant results-to develop a breakthrough in the area of ​​Ochretine village, in particular: yes, it becomes obvious that the plans of the Ukrainian command to stop the offensive at the "Enemy Center" by maintaining the border of the reed-Umansky fully implemented Can't.

The enemy continues to move, and his command, feeling a significant increase in his "prospects" in this direction, tries to increase his efforts in this area, hoping to increase the pace of offensive even more. In particular, I already wrote that the enemy introduced into battle to the right of the 30th Separate Rifle Brigade (OMSBR), which, in fact, is a "main" in the reed area, and 132th OMSBR, another brigade-35th OMSBR, In the general direction on Novokalin - ceramics.

Which, in turn, made it possible to compact the combat order of the 30th OMSBR. But, in addition, the units and the newly formed 27th Division Motorilkiv, in particular, have already appeared to participate in the attacks in the Ocheretine area and in the direction of Solovyovo, the 433th Motorized Rifle Regiment (SME) has already joined.

So, as of yesterday, an enemy directly into a breakthrough in the area of ​​Ochretine village has already introduced at least 2 full-blooded motorized rifle brigades and 1 "fresh" motorized rifle regiment, which allowed him to create in this direction (site) almost 3 multiple advantage in power and means.

The only significant deterrent for the enemy is the maintenance of the advanced units of the Armed Forces of the Armed Forces of Berdychi - Semenivka and the district of ceramics, which potentially poses for him the threat of the flank councils of the Armed Forces on the breakthrough.

The 74th OMSBR of the enemy from his 41st General University can significantly "defense" the defense of the Armed Forces in the village of Berdychy, and thus provide a flank of the advancing tactical group of the 2nd General Group from the south.

132-A OMSBR, from the 1st AK of the 8th ID, also has an extremely slow pace of promotion in Novokalin's Directorate-Ceramics, which inhibits the offensive of the 30th OMSBR (as far as I understand, the introduction of an opponent between it and the 132nd OMSBR , The 35th OMSBR is designed to "solve this problem").

For his part, on the other flank of the Ukrainian Center, the Center's Center, the command of the Armed Forces, and the 90th Tank Division (TD), acting as units of its The 239th Tank (TP) and the 428th Motorized Rifle (SME) regiments attaches the leading positions of our troops both along the southern shore of the Uman pond (from east to west), and in fact, a little east of S. Umanske.

Obviously, at least at the border of the Yusnobrodivka - Nethylovo, so that they will even "replace" the departure of our troops from the district of West Orlovka and Berdichi - Semenivka. They will have to "rest" and take the most clearly browned and Uman, which, according to the results of the extreme days, it is not easy for them.

And they break through ", personally, I have the impression that it behaves like that drunkard from a famous proverb -" once he has sent such a drunken man - an hard time. " I will explain. I was encouraged by some fakes of early withdrawal of the Russian military contingent from the so-called "Karabakh Economic Zone" (it had to be stitched there until 2025, with the opportunity to extend my stay, of course, "with the consent of the parties", until 2030- It is year).

The first echelons of this contingent have already begun to arrive in the territory of the Southern Military District (South) of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. The moving of the contingent should be completed by 15-row this year. So, the first echelon with 49 units of BTR-82A \ AM did not have time, and they have already been prepared for sending at the completion of the 15th OMSBR from the warehouse "Center", which is now leading an offensive in the Pokrovsky direction in Ukraine.

It has to come 50 more units of the same APC (BTR-82A \ AM), but they have already been "painted"-16 units for the 30th OMSBR (yeah, the same, which now attacks the reed) and 34 more as part of the 90th TD (this is one that is now torn into Uman and Yusnobrodivka). As you can see, all these crews and the division - from the Center. I have already wrote that the situation with weapons and military equipment (OVT) in the parts and connections of UV Center, let's say so, looks "ambiguously" today.

They are clearly lacking, especially in the sphere - "armored vehicles", which in the UV "center" is even less than the number of not the biggest "East". In fact, every good tank, BBM in the brigades and regiments of the Center are on special accounting today. And yet, the command of the Center throws its crews into offensive battles using a large number of armored vehicles well, and is actively active, leading to new losses and becomes even less.

For example, the 15th OMSBR is actively involved in these battles. Urgent, almost "from wheels", so to speak "delivery" of 49 units of APC for her (which is about a little less than 2 battalion kits), obviously, not from Balda. The enemy's command is clearly in a hurry to restore its level of combat capability.

In this regard, it is asked - at what level it was "a little earlier", if you need to immediately drive the equipment to almost 2 battalions immediately? And most importantly - what happened all this? The 15th OMSBR is the so-called "peacekeeping" brigade of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, intended for participation in various peacekeeping and "stabilization" operations (although, relative to the Russian army, these are very specific actions).

It is possible that it is the return of her "full-time" from the "peacekeeping" operation in Karabakh, but something she fought earlier near Avdiivka, giving her APCs in Karabakh? Where did it go? But, in fact, it's not interesting. By and large, we and the Russians are well aware of where the OVT parts and units of the center "Center" (now adjacent to Avdiivka are "decorated" by the territory of the territory they are decorated).

Interesting else-and where, in addition to peacekeeping, the Russians will have so many OVTs that not only restore the level of combat capability of their already deployed formations, but also those that they allegedly are going to throw in the spring-summer in the next "spring hike" (yes, yes, The same "big offensive"), which implies not only the restoration but also the formation and deployment of new parts and connections? Will Korean and Chinese tanks go? In Russia itself, the production of armored vehicles, let's say, obviously does not quite hurry for the "community of plans" of political and military leadership, 300-350 produced and restored (repaired, raised from long-term storage, etc.