Crimea Ukrainian by the end of the year: experts named 5 scenarios of war in Ukraine in 2023

According to Ben Hodges, former US troops in Europe, the Armed Forces will be released the entire territory of Ukraine by the end of the year. According to other military researchers, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation can maintain the current tactics of war on exhaustion. The Deputy Director of the British Institute for Strategic Studies, Michael Clark, explained that those who invade other countries in Eurasia were doomed to fight in winter.

Napoleon's troops, Hitler, Stalin, and now Putin is forced to dig and wait for spring for the offensive. About it reports the Air Force. Both parties needed a pause, but Ukrainians are better equipment and motivated to continue the fight, so we can expect that the Armed Forces would maintain pressure at least in the Donbass.

"In the Kreminna and Svatov area, they are very close to the breakthrough, which will reject Russian troops 60 km to the next natural line of defense, close to the area where the invasion began in February," the expert explained. It is unlikely that Kyiv will stop when the goal is so close. At the same time, after the release of Kherson in the southwest area, the Ukrainian counter -offensive can be paused.

According to Clark, the transfer of troops to the Left Bank of the Dnieper for fire influence on vulnerable Russian automobile and railway connections with Crimea can be too complicated. However, it is not necessary to reject the likelihood of an unexpected offensive of Kiev. In 2023, the Spring Russian offensive will have an important role. "Putin has already sent about 50,000 new mobilized troops to the front.

Another 250,000 are undergoing preparation next year," the expert said, adding that this only indicates the continuation of the war on the part of Putin. Andriy Piontkovsky, a scientist and analyst from Washington, believes that Ukraine will win and restore territorial integrity by at least spring 2023. He notes the motivation and courage of Ukrainian servicemen and citizens, unprecedented in the history of modern wars.

The second important factor is that after many years, during which attempts were made to pacify the Russian dictator, in the West finally understood the scale of the historical challenge. "We pay money. Ukrainians pay blood. If authoritarian regimes see that the use of force is justified, we will pay even more. And the world will become much more dangerous to us," said NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.

Barbara Zanchett, which represents the Department of Military Studies of the Royal College of London, said that Putin expected that Ukraine would settle down with the aggression of a stronger neighbor, and other countries would not intervene too much. Such a miscalculation led to a long conflict, the end of which is not visible.

The price of war - the money and the lives of people who are paid for the military adventure in the Russian Federation can affect the level of support among the Russian elite. "The passing wars in which the miscalculation became an important component, such as Vietnam for the United States, or Afghanistan for the USSR, ended in this way.

Intra -political conditions in the country that admitted the miscalculation, changed, and exit from the war -" worthy or not - became the only one A possible option, " - explained an analyst who believes that the war will continue until the end of next year. " Ben Hodges, ex-commander of the US troops in Europe, believes that it is too early to plan a victory parade in Kiev, but the initiative on the side of Ukraine. In his opinion, there is no doubt in the final victory of Ukraine.

Most likely, this will happen in 2023. According to Hodges, in January Ukraine can already move to the final stage of the campaign, the purpose of which is to liberate Crimea. The withdrawal of Russian troops finally convinced the expert in the victory of the Armed Forces.

First, it became a psychological rise for the Ukrainian people, secondly, the grand shame of the Kremlin, and thirdly, the Ukrainian forces received the most important operational advantage-all routes to the Crimea are now in reaching the Armed Forces.

By the end of 2023, the control of Kyiv over Crimea will be fully restored, Hodges notes with a reservation that there may be some agreement, which provides for a gradual reduction in the presence of the Russian Fleet in Sevastopol, possibly by 2025. A similar treaty existed before the annexation of Crimea. In the future, the restoration of Ukrainian infrastructure in the Azov Sea is expected, including important ports - Mariupol and Berdyansk.

Opening of the North Crimean Channel, which supplies the peninsula with water from the Dnieper. David Gandelman, Israeli military expert, estimates about half of 300,000 Russian mobilized are in the front zone. They are added to the forces of the Russian Federation, which retreated from Kherson, which gives the Kremlin opportunities for the offensive.

The occupation of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions will continue, but a serious Russian breakthrough, for example, from the south to the Pavlograd for the Armed Forces, is not so likely. Most likely, the current tactics of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation will remain - attempts to influence Ukrainian forces in narrow areas, as in Bakhmut and Avdiivka, and a slow offensive. Perhaps in the Svatovo area - Kreminna.

This strategy is supplemented by blows to energy infrastructure of all Ukraine. Significant Ukrainian forces were released after the retreat of the Russian Federation from Kherson. For them, the most favorable offensive - to the south, to Melitopol and Berdyansk to cut off the Russian land corridor to the Crimea. "This will be the biggest Ukrainian victory, which is why the Russians strengthen the approaches to Melitotopl," the expert said.