Payments do not help: why the "volunteers" in the Russian Federation and what Putin will do

The focus has understood whether the Russian Federation really had problems with a set in the army. The Russian army began a full -scale war against Ukraine by a professional army of contractors and soldiers of conscript service. Now the third year of fighting is coming. The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation now consist of imposed, mobilized and contractors. And the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation plans to expand the number of Armed Forces of the Russian Federation to 1.

32 million, which is 170 thousand more than it was in 2022. British intelligence reports that about 30,000 recruits enter the Russian army every month. This is enough to cover the loss in the war. If we talk about losses, according to the Ukrainian General Staff, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation lost 527 390 fighters as of June 17. The list includes liquidated, injured and other types of losses.

Since July 2022, the Russian PEC "Wagner", headed by Eugene Prigogin, began to recruit mercenaries with prison. Journalists of the Russian BBC and Medazones Department received documents on the number of dead Wagnerians during the Bakhmut Battle. It turned out that 19,957 mercenaries were eliminated, 88% of which were connected - 17,75. The other 12% were mercenaries who had no criminal record. A total of 48 366 people were recruited.

The loss of the imposed Russian on the front already leads to prison closure in the Russian Federation, because there is no one to sit there. In 2023 there was an offensive operation of Ukraine, and then the Russian Federation began again. In early May, they began surgery from the offensive in the north of the Kharkiv region. Many settlements in the east and south remain key points on the map. The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are on the offensive.

However, the systemic analyst Yevgeny Eastrebin has found a tendency that payments for people who decided to join the army of the Russian Federation have increased significantly in the Russian Federation. Since the beginning of June, the Russians have increased payments at times. They differ from the region to the region, but there is a general trend to attempt to involve people in the troops by increasing single assistance.

For example, since June 10, payments in 5 regions have grown by 35% - 1300%: according to the author, this may indicate that the Kremlin reaches the time when money will not be able to replenish the benches of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. People who want to go to war are getting smaller. Therefore, there are several options: in the meantime, BBC journalists have calculated on the basis of open data, which since February 24, 2022, 56 452 Russian soldiers have been killed.

Most of the current losses among those who went to fight the contract with the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. The losses among mobilized or among the imposed are not greater. From the fall of 2023, analysts capture a sharp increase in the number of dead among volunteers. Since October, at least 75 people die daily. The increase in losses is explained by the fact that the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation tries to prevent a new wave of mobilization.

To do this, each region has to fulfill the plan for recruiting Russians for war. Recently, not only those who are under investigation are recruited. Such people are promised to suspend a criminal case. It is noted separately that the digits by losses are actually larger. 56 452 of the dead is something that managed to install on open data. Hidden mobilization in Russia continues from the fall of 2022, when Russian President Vladimir Putin declared 300,000 people.

This caused a wave of migration from the Russian Federation. However, since then it is possible to mobilize 30-40 thousand soldiers per month. The set of people allows you to increase the army and make reserves. Financial Times states that by the end of the year, the Russian defense department may announce mobilization. It is called "inevitable because the government will probably have to go beyond the staffing strategy.

While the Kremlin is not annoyed with a new wave of mobilization, a significant offensive in the summer will be impossible, says the interlocutor of the publication. The Russian authorities are now ready to sacrifice operational successes to" protect the rest from the war. "It should be added that the announcement of mobilization in the Russian Federation can once again lead to a wave of migration from the country.

Currently, the Kremlin has not restricted the right of military personnel to leave, if he did not have a summons. The Russian Federation can be published electronically. And in May, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs added another restriction - citizens with electronic summons will no longer be able to get documents outside Russia. The absence of autumn or spring conscription. Ukraine should not be obliged not to enter NATO or other military unit, it should remain neutral.