According to the weather. When and how the Kremlin will restore rocket strokes in Ukraine

Last year, Russia has already started its massive missile attacks on the Ukrainian energy system. The Blackut then failed, but significant damage was caused. Currently, the Kremlin has departed from the tactics of mass rocket strokes in favor of the Shahaneda attack. The focus has learned whether to expect new rocket strokes and when they could start. On the night of October 16, the Russian command made a combined attack, hitting the Ukrainian missiles and Drone Kamikadze in Ukrainian cities.

One of the missiles was launched in Mirgorod. It should be noted that on the same night, on October 16, the Russian Armed Forces made a combined attack using percussion drones and missiles, in a number of regions of Ukraine. On October 10, 2022, Russia struck the first massive rocket strike on Ukraine's energy infrastructure. Then the Budo released 83 rockets, which became the most massive attack from the beginning of the invasion of 2022.

As a result of the attack, about 28 energy infrastructure facilities in eight regions and Kiev were damaged. The air defense forces managed to intercept 43 rockets. Already on October 22, the enemy resorted to the second massive rocket strike. This time, 33 rocket launches were used, 18 of which were able to intercept. In the future, the strikes of critical and energy infrastructure continued regularly, the most massive occurred on December 28 - the enemy used more than 120 missiles.

The last massive rocket strike in Ukraine was struck on September 21, 2023. At that time, ten Tu-95MC aircraft were attracted to the attack, which released 43 missiles in several events, 36 of them were intercepted. The Russian command changed the tactics of air attacks in favor of Shahaneda ammunition. It is with their help that the port infrastructure in the south of Ukraine is destroyed.

According to the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense, Russia is currently exploring Ukrainian energy sites. It is about space intelligence and using drones. The head of the GUR Kirill Budanov is convinced that if last year Russia failed to create a blackout situation in Ukraine, then this year it will continue to pursue the same goals. "There are no special adjustments in their plans, so they will continue to do it this season.

Unfortunately, we are again waiting for the battle for electricity," he said in an interview with Ukrainian Truth. The Washington Post reviewers predict that winter in Ukraine will be much more difficult this year. After the attacks in 2022, Ukraine could not be fully restored, many systems do not work in full. This year the Nomenclature of air defense in Ukraine has expanded significantly.

MIM-104 Patriot, SAMP/T, IRIS-T, NASAM and numerous anti-aircraft gun complexes for the fight against Shahaneda were obtained and put on combat duty. However, the experience of attack on September 21 showed that these forces are not enough to completely close the sky. According to the military expert, the major of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Alexei Hetman, Russian air attacks will begin no later than November, in the Kremlin do not look for any sign dates, but follow the weather forecasts.

"As soon as it gets cold and rains, it is necessary to prepare for attacks," he says focus. In May 2023, the GUR was estimated that the Russian Federation can produce about 25 "calibers", X-101-35 units, "daggers"-two units a month, ballistic missiles 9m723 to "Iskander-M"-five units . According to the hetman, the current situation shows that massive rocket strokes can occur two to three times a month. And if you talk about blows deep into the territory, it will be about 40-50 missiles per target.

"Today, the Russian Federation can produce about 60-80 missiles monthly, plus minus 500 pieces are in stock. Therefore, for more efficient use, the tactics of blows to combined-" Shahda ", winged, ballistic and aerobalist missiles will be changed. The main goals remain unchanged. -Objects of critical infrastructure, energy. I think that military airfields will be added, "-explains the former deputy chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces, Lieutenant General Igor Romanenko.

He notes that in the autumn and winter, Ukraine should expect massive rocket strokes, but combined, using different types of missiles on Shahaned drone. The number of "Shahaned" does not decrease, the plant is being built in Tatarstan, and the next year in the Russian Federation plan to move completely to their own barrading ammunition. "We have already seen their potential, using up to fifty drones a month.

Therefore, they will remain the basis of air attacks to which rockets will be added when we will need to be drawn to any decision. These solutions will dictate a military-political situation," the expert says . At the same time, Alexei Hetman says that it is worth preparing for rocket strokes, but they will happen in another way, as they say: taking into account the previous mistakes. These will be combined, as they will plan to predict them now.

It can be said for sure that the massive attacks with the use of barrading ammunition and attack on frontier on the border regions with the help of C-300 will be in stock in the Russian Federation several thousand. Another feature of the autumn-winter rocket attack of the Russian Federation on Ukraine can be a powerful information-propaganda campaign.

Military expert Ivan Stupak suggests that most likely the main focus of missile strikes will be aimed at the frontline regions - Odessa, Mykolaiv, Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia. Plus the border - Kharkiv, Sumy, Chernihiv, there will be shelling of mortars and jet artillery. The main goal is to cause socio-political tension in the country, to create the opinion that Kiev has been redeemed and protected. Although it is not necessary to exclude that the capital will also get.

"We are actively preparing for rocket strokes, but the enemy is guaranteed to expand their variety. I think water, gas supply and food, including grain elevators, will go for new purposes. It is worth waiting for political destabilization attempts due to the lack of bread in villages in small cities. We understand that the lack of bread in the big city is perceived relatively calmly, then for the village is the main product.

The information campaign on social networks through the Botoferma, which has been protected, is to be connected here. And the regions forgot about the regions, " - says Focus Stupak. However, despite the pessimistic forecasts, Alexei Hetman notes that if you look to the detriment of rocket strikes last year, this year it will definitely be smaller. Ukrainian air defense has increased significantly and improved, so you can be sure that less rockets will break through to goals.