Putin will go to Kiev, Kharkiv or NATO countries: elites in the Russian Federation named the scenarios of the upcoming war

Oligarchs in Russia have adopted a new reality and no longer deny the fact of invasion of Ukraine. Many are frightened by the idea of ​​endless war and NATO collisions, so the rich ones want to return faster on February 23, 2022. The Russian elites at the beginning of a full -scale invasion of Ukraine were shocked, but today they have accepted a new reality.

By the end of 2023, many began to support the war, more and more musicians were going to perform in temporarily occupied territories, writes Foreign Affairs magazine. Many oligarchs realized that the invasion, even if they did not support it, turned into a tolerable fact. The chances of challenging the Kremlin's decisions, which were always small, have completely disappeared.

Instead of discussing the support of Russian President Vladimir Putin, Russian elites think what the war can end, the publication writes. Thoughts are divided: some believe that a great victory on the battlefield will allow Putin to declare a partial victory and suspend the war. Others are convinced that Putin will not stop until he reaches Kiev. Some of the elites indicate the importance for Moscow confrontation with the West, not a victory in Ukraine.

The next step may be an attack on another state in Europe. "Some pessimists claim that the question itself is wrong. In their view, the war is in line with Putin's political interests, so it will continue to beat until the end of his days," the authors of the material notes. Foreign Affairs names several reasons why Russian elites have reoriented to Putin's course. Some became more cautious as Moscow suppresses dissent. Others understand the absurdity of protests.

"Perhaps the main reason for the changes that they began to see the invasion of a fundamentally different angle. Today they are confident in the victory It weakens that Ukraine is jeopardizing Ukraine's access to military deliveries, "analysts say. The idea of ​​the compulsory victory of Russia is also dominated, otherwise the event "will not allow the Russians to live. " In the event of defeat, Russia will fall apart, comments one of the oligarchs.

In view of the trend, the oligarchs now discuss what conditions can be called victory in the war. Optimists will be satisfied with any great successful offensive of the occupiers and the most likely purpose is Kharkiv, the second largest city of Ukraine, the newspaper writes. If Russia tries to seize the city, Kharkiv will face almost complete destruction of the remaining infrastructure, which will lead to rapid decline of the population.

People who remain in the Russian occupation will have to survive, journalists emphasize. According to a businessman who has close ties with the Kremlin, Putin will not be satisfied with the conquest of northeast of Ukraine. The only result he will accept is the capture of Kiev, he considers this city "the cradle of Russian civilization.

" "Putin is experiencing a special commitment to the Kiev-Pechersk Lavra, an old Orthodox monastery, where he spent almost all the time during his last official visit to the city in 2013. Lavra is a place of resting of several respected Russian saints and historical figures, including prime minister -Minister of the Russian Empire Peter Stolypin, who is admired by Putin, " -reads in the publication.

If Russia starts the second campaign with the capture of the capital of Ukraine, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation can begin to come from Belarus, as it was in the winter of 2022. Many in Moscow believe that this time the Russian army will win the exhausted reserves of Ukraine. However, for Putin, the war in Ukraine applies not only to Ukraine. Instead, people close to the Russian President say that he considers the invasion of just one front in conflict with the West.

To defeat his true enemies in Brussels and Washington, Putin may feel that he needs to attack a NATO member. According to the Russian elite, the most likely purpose will be Estonia or Latvia: two Baltic countries with many Russian minorities. Moscow will adhere to a familiar scheme. Employees of the Federal Security Service of Russia will force Russian -speaking in one of the two countries to say that they are oppressed by the government and they need the help of the Kremlin.

Further, the army of the Russian Federation will "release" them: it will cross the borders and take control of the municipalities in the eastern part of any of the states, for example, in the Estonian city of Narva. "This territorial capture will be a serious challenge for NATO. By taking Narva, Putin will check that the block is really ready to risk the Third World War through a few square miles on the border. " In the past, Russian elites did not want to risk nuclear conflict.

But now many of them are convinced that NATO will not dare to answer. They consider the West tired, separated and much less interested in the fight against Russia. Instead, the Russian elites believe that NATO will be covered with such panic and chaos. Such provocation can be useful in Russia on the eve of the US presidential election. The idea of ​​an endless war in Ukraine is frightening the Russian elite, which dreams of returning faster to February 23, 2022.