Russia loses, but has not lost. What happens next?

Lawrence Friedman Honored Professor of Military Research by the Royal College of London Lawrence Friedman: there is no reason to believe that Putin has reached the point when he can recognize the position to which he brought his country (photo: Reuters) both bankrupt and with military defeat. What seems to be a long and painful routine can suddenly turn into a rapid defeat "How did you go bankrupt?" “There are two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.

" Ernest Hemingway, "and the sun rises" is likely, a stable and well -worked army can be broken and looking for ways to rescue. It is not uncommon in the war. We saw how it happened to the Afghan army in the summer of 2021. Video of the day we watched a wonderful Ukrainian offensive in Kharkiv.

Before us, the spectacle of the retreating army - the remains of broken columns, abandoned cars, hurried positions, scattered equipment and unheard food, pathetic captives and locals who greet Ukrainian troops when they pass through their villages. The speed of the offensive is impressive, since tens of square kilometers turn into hundreds, and then thousands, and a handful of liberated villages and cities - into tens. While I write this post, the events continue to overtake paragraphs.

Of course, it would be premature to speak about Ukraine's complete victory in the war through one successful and unexpected breakthrough. But what happened is of historical significance. This offensive turned much of what they were confident with the conclusions about the course of the war.

This is a reminder that the fact that the front lines seem static does not mean that they will remain such, and that morale and motivation are depleted in armies that are faced with defeat, especially when troops are unsure of what they are fighting for and lost confidence in their officers. Who wants to be a martyr when the war is already lost? The Ukrainian goals of the Kharkiv offensive were characterized as opportunistic.

This is due to the fact that the Supreme Command of Ukraine seems to have decided to take advantage of the fact that Russia has transferred considerable forces towards Kherson to repel a widely advertised attack. And the Ukrainians began a new offensive to areas that remained weaker. According to an alternative explanation, the offensive was not opportunistic, but well planned.

The Russians were deceived by Ukraine's regular conversations about Kherson's future offensive, especially in order to distract the troops, although Kharkiv was always a real purpose. However, it would be unreasonable to assume that the Kherson offensive is only of secondary importance: the south of Ukraine is still strategically important for the Ukrainian economy, connection with the Black Sea and Crimea.