As military analyst Michael Clarke points out in a commentary for Sky News, the fog did allow the Russians to hide their maneuvers, but it only increased the effect of a tactic that has been used for a long time. According to him, the weather did not become a determining factor: the main reason for the change in the situation is the large-scale concentration of Russian troops.
According to the expert's estimates, there are currently approximately 100,000 Russian troops in the sector around Pokrovsk, while the Ukrainian group in the area numbers only 30,000 to 40,000. In particular, the videos shared by Russian sources show troops entering the city through dense fog on motorcycles, cars and vans. According to Clark, this only confirms that Russian units adapted existing tactics to weather conditions, using them to covertly approach Ukrainian positions.
At the same time, quantitative advantage remains the decisive factor. It is important to note that Pokrovsk is one of the key logistics hubs of Donetsk region, located on important road and railway routes. Battles for the city have been going on for over a year, and the potential loss of this settlement could significantly impair Ukraine's defense capabilities in adjacent areas. According to Clark, it is probably too late for Ukraine to retreat without significant losses.
According to him, the command could deliberately delay the withdrawal of units, trying to demonstrate to international partners, primarily the United States, that control over the city is maintained despite Vladimir Putin's statement. As noted in expert circles, discussions are currently ongoing as to whether this decision was made for political reasons, in particular by the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces Oleksandr Syrsky and probably with the approval of President Volodymyr Zelenskyi.
After all, as Clark recalls, difficulties with an organized retreat were already evident in Avdiivka and Bakhmut, where the delay in retreat led to the loss of equipment and increased risks for personnel. He assumes that most of the equipment, which was possible to evacuate even earlier, has already been removed, and now the main task is to ensure the safe exit of Ukrainian fighters.
The expert also notes that the further development of events will directly depend on the ability of the Ukrainian command to quickly make operational decisions, transfer reserves and stabilize the defense line. Given the strategic importance of Pokrovsk, the situation in this area may become decisive for the next phase of hostilities in Donetsk region.
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