China wraps Russia: why the probability of a truce has become higher by 50%

It all started with Lavrov's visit to Beijing, where, with a great deal of likelihood, the Russians were told that China would not want to enter the Great Trade War of Cherniaz (China do not want exacerbations in relations with Washington now). 50% duty on Brazil showed that Trump may not joke but ready for more active action. India has started to shake and can decide to refuse Russian oil.

The Russian media began writing about the decomposition of the negotiations Dmitriev-Rubio, because it seems like Trump has decided to start a major oil restriction of Russia, which was threatened in the coming months by the fall of oil income for at least 25%. Unlike the previous rounds of negotiations, Putin has virtually no option to disrupt the negotiations with the hands of Ukrainians.

And the statements that Kherson or Zaporozhye should be given will look like a breakdown of the negotiations by the Russians themselves. Putin now thinks the category of "short steps", and his task, as in all previous months, is to take time. This is important because decisions that may occur during negotiations will be considered as temporary. Putin's main requirement will be the removal of sanctions and return to European markets.

That is why Dmitriev was intensified and that is why the Russian media began to write about the five-sided agreement of Russia-Ukraine-China-SSS-EU. As for Ukraine, the main requirements will be elections, about the Russian language and the Russian church. At the same time, the Russian Federation "on the front" will set the requirements for stopping the supply of weapons and not to place peacekeepers, realizing that peacekeepers do not have any significance, and weapons will still be supplied.

It will be important for them to make concessions in these matters and to demand from Ukraine concessions in matters of language and church. We really stand for the first time on the eve of a possible effective negotiation process, where China seems to be squeezing the Russians. In the case of the real beginning of the peace process, with the great fate of probability, we will be able to talk about the beginning of the end of Putin.