What will lead to Putin's hysteria. Several of the most realistic versions of the further course of war and the situation in the world

On the morning of September 21, the Kremlin's master Putin again declared a great war to Ukraine without declaring it. If for the first time, on February 24, he did it, declaring the beginning of a "special military operation", now everything happened under the guise of recognition in advance of "referendums" in the occupied lands of Ukraine, NATO threats with nuclear weapons and a manner about the beginning of "partial" mobilization in the Russian Federation.

Video of the day as Putin explained, the special operation is successful - the army of the Russian Federation slowly "releases" Donbas. It is this, according to the dictator, is now a key task of Russia. But the trouble was, the Kremlin's master said that the front line stretched for a thousand kilometers, and the Russians were opposed not only by "neo -Nazi formations", but also "in fact the whole military machine of the collective event.

" Putin plans to answer this "car" on the battlefield, attracting hundreds of thousands of Russians in the army. In addition, he warned that in the event of "threat to territorial integrity" the Russian Federation Moscow will apply nuclear weapons. "And it's not bluff," the dictator added.

And its recognition of "referendums" in the occupied areas of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhya region, even before their beginning, - although the result of the "voting" is known in advance, - shows that even the threat of territorial integrity can be struck by the Armed Forces in these regions. Putin promised the Russians "partial" mobilization, - they say, only those in stock and have army experience. But in its relevant decree there is no restrictions on this process.

But there is one point that the Kremlin did not publish. The Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov explained that the number of future mobilized-300 thousand. The need for these forces, which is one third exceeding the approximate number of the primary grouping of the Russian Federation, which began a full -scale invasion, he explained paradoxically.

They say that during the "operations" of the Armed Forces lost 100 thousand from the initial 200 thousand of their soldiers, so additional 300,000 were put under the gun. But "all the Nativ satellite group works against us: more than 70 military and more than 200 civilian satellites are exploring the location of our units. " The minister added that the mobilization resource of the Russian Federation is 25 million people.

In this regard, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said: “Putin sees that his units are simply scattered. He needs a multimillion -dollar army. Because he sees that most of those who invade us are just running away. He wants to drown Ukraine in the blood, in particular, in the blood of his soldiers. " Also, the Ukrainian leader called "referendums" fake, and added that he did not believe that Putin would apply nuclear weapons.

What should Ukraine be expected - both on the front line and in the field of international support? NV, together with experts, modeled the most real scenarios of events. The consequences for Ukraine of a bad scenario for Ukraine after Putin's statements for mobilization cannot be, convinced by Alexander Kovalenko, a military expert on information resistance. After all, he said, in Russia it will not be possible to collect the number of mobilized ones they plan.

And even if it succeeds - where to teach them, what to provide them? "Putin has announced 300,000, but they should all be provided with weapons, equipment, equipment and more, if units are formed," the expert NV said. - 300 thousand - the actual number of units of personnel who participated for 7 months of war in Ukraine. At the beginning of the invasion, it was 180 thousand personnel concentrated near our borders by Russia and Belarus, as well as on the temporarily occupied peninsula of Crimea.

And then there were constant rotations and restoration of combat capability, allocation for the restoration of units, etc. ”. Therefore, to provide 300,000 mobilized, you need thousands of pieces of equipment of completely different nomenclature. And this is not enough for Russia even for those who are fighting now. Therefore, "partial" mobilization, according to Kovalenko, is a problem, first of all, for the Russian Federation.

Because it not only raises the issue of providing, but also about forced, even repressive mobilization - using the elements of legislation, which on the eve of Putin's statement in the Russian Federation made more violently relatively different mobilized, servicemen and deserters. Military expert Oleg Zhdanov also notes that the issue of mobilization for the Russian Federation will be difficult.

He draws attention to the fact that although it will begin now, it will mean that "new" Russian soldiers can be used not earlier than early spring. Mobilization will take a month, then 3-4 months will need to be distributed in parts, training and combat coordination. "This is if they do not want to throw them immediately without preparation, only after a short course of a young fighter, more precisely - advanced training," Zhdanov explains. - If they do not do so, then the prospect of 4-5 months.

In the most long time - 3 months, because only 2 months they will collect them. ” Kovalenko adds that the most poor scenario for Ukraine is if the Russian Federation is able to mobilize some personnel that compensates for certain losses in directions. That is, it will strengthen one of the directions: southern or in the Donbass. And the Ukrainian offensive will stop there. "But this cannot be compensation for more than a level of the Army Corps," the expert is convinced.

Positive consequences for Ukraine will be that such actions of the Kremlin dictator can lead to internal problems in Russia. And too - when forced mobilization begins, Kovalenko notes. This, in his opinion, catalyzes the dissatisfaction of Russian society with the events that take place. "Any hayotization-social, economic, political-in the country of the enemy is very profitable for us," the expert is sure.

- Putin made our struggle easier, simplified our opportunities to carry out not only the liberation of its territories, but also to reduce Russia's capabilities to respond to those events that will take place in the near future in Ukraine. They will not be able to respond because they will need to respond to internal problems. " Oleksiy Melnyk, a co -director of foreign policy programs and international security of the Razumkov Center, agrees in Russia.

However, if it does not happen and the Russians "go like rams for a conversion", then two more scenarios are possible. "Or they will be thrown immediately as mobilized from temporarily occupied territories, to the front line called as live meat," the expert explained. -Whether minimal, a month or two, they will be prepared. And then send more or less some or less, trained units to compensate for losses or create reserves.

" And the most real scenario of the analysts interviewed is seen when Russia will try to compensate for its losses, but it will not succeed in either personnel matters fully or in technology. Kovalenko notes that today all the equipment of the Russian Federation, which goes to the war zone, goes from conservation and preservation. Therefore, there is maintenance and repairs before that.

"To restore the T-72 tank and it was 100% capable, it takes about 2 months at best for maintenance and repair," Kovalenko said. -For the T-80 tank it takes much more-more than 3 months. " Therefore, in the near future, the Russians will not be able to fully and massively compensate at least the losses they have suffered in the Kharkiv region. "Because in order to compensate them, it takes about six months to restore the potential," the expert says.

Therefore, only the situational use of some units can be possible in order to compensate for losses and restore combat capacity in some areas in the war zone. "But it will not have any critical value that would increase their combat capability in the offensive or defense," Kovalenko adds.

What would take the event to Putin's statements immediately reacted by the key countries of the West: they warned that they would not recognize the results of pseudo -referendums in the occupied Russian territories and made it clear that they would continue to support Ukraine. In particular, Russia has condemned Russia's intentions to annex the occupied territories of Ukraine, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken in a speech at the UN General Assembly.

He stressed that Russia is going to these steps right now - after failure on the battlefield and increasing concern in the world regarding the war. According to the Secretary of State, it is a "sign of the failure of Russia. " Gillian Kigan, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the United Kingdom, appreciated the Kremlin's decision as a "anxious escalation" of the war on the part of Moscow and noted that the threats of the Russian Federation should be treated "seriously".

She also addressed the Ukrainians with the following words: "We are with you, we are on your side - we will help what we can. " German Chancellor Olaf Scholtz also stressed that the country does not accept any "referendum" and noted that "Ukraine should be able to protect itself from the invasion of Russia. " The EU High Representative Josep Borrel was voiced by the EU countries. He also stressed that the EU did not recognize the results of pseudo -referendums.

Ukraine Chairman of European Council Michel also assured Ukraine in support of the EU. According to Sergiy Solodky, the first deputy director of the New Europe Center, the response of the event to Putin's statements will be strengthened by Ukraine's support. "They can only accept Putin's statement in one way: the Russian president is not going to negotiate, to any steps that would help stabilize the situation in the region, he is still tuned to escalation," Sweet.

- All his recent statements, in which he says, he seeks negotiations - they do not really cost anything, he will not retreat. Accordingly, it is a clear signal and threat of the West that Putin will go to the end. " Therefore, the West will not give way, because it is his democratic outlook and its existence. However, the expert is convinced of the harder steps than before, Western leaders are unlikely to go. After all, there was nothing new in Putin's statements, including nuclear blackmail.

“The Kremlin arsenal is completely transparent, obvious and predicted. And all this was: nuclear threats, threats with the army and its use. Whether it is in the amount that was by February this year, whether it will be a new number - it does not play a role, ”Sweet. - The West would like to stop this war, he did his best to stop it. And these efforts were calling for dialogue, phone calls, and in negotiations with Putin.

And then the event had to take the extreme steps, as he perceives it - the most rigid sanctions, providing military assistance to Ukraine. Accordingly, since nothing changes in Putin's politics, in Putin's approaches, why should something change in the approaches of the West? ” Sweet is convinced that the support of Western countries in Ukraine will not be less, but probably will not be larger. "The event is still in the stage of thinking, weighing all possible risks," he explains.

Valery Chaly, Ambassador of Ukraine to the United States in 2015-2019, says the reaction of Western countries to Putin's statements adequate. According to him, it can be reduced to three positions. The first is that no Putin and Russian blackmail and threats will pass. Second: evidence of the failure of all the Kremlin plans and in fact raising the rates to the highest level, but in fact, it is a recognition of defeat in a "special military operation".

Third: the reaction to the fact that Ukraine expects to provide operative-tactical missiles, at least up to 300 km, aircraft, tanks, shock drones of the long range of action, possibly underwater drones, and all that was restrained until the moment of current statements from Russia. "Now there is no fuse and explain to the Western countries why it is not provided, it will be practically impossible,"-said ex-ambassador in the United States.

Chaly is convinced that three scenarios of events are possible. The first, with a probability of 20%, is the perception of Putin's threats seriously, which will make him less active in the Ukrainian issue. The second, 30%realistic: by giving comments that this is a loss of Russia, the event does nothing else.

The third, the most real, according to the diplomat, the script (its likelihood is 50%), as it is: accelerating the support of Ukraine's support in three directions - weapons, sanctions, general political support "for the sake of increasing geopolitical isolation of Russia". It seems that such a variant of events will really become a reality. At least if you consider President Joe Baiden's speech at the UN General Assembly on September 21.

The American leader said there that Putin had dishonestly violated the main points of the statute of this largest international organization. He added that Ukraine has the same rights as every sovereign state and that "we will be solidarity with Ukraine . . . and a point. " And NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg said: "We will keep peace and continue to support Ukraine.

" The fact that the events will unfold in the third scenario, is convinced by Alexander Merezhko, the People's Deputy of the CH and the Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on Foreign Policy. In a conversation with HB, he expressed confidence that Putin's new statements would increase Ukraine's support, including military technical. "Western politicians have their" red lines.

" "The most negative scenario is if Putin annexes the occupied territories and blackmaid the world by using nuclear weapons under the pretext that it is allegedly, the territory of Russia. " A positive script for Ukraine would be a partial mobilization will lead to large -scale protests in Russia, dissatisfaction with the establishment and the removal of Putin from power, according to Merezhko. "But in this case, such a scenario is too optimistic," adds the People's Deputy.

- As Putin relies on a branched repressive apparatus that supplies protests. Putin raises rates, hoping to intimidate the event. But he corresponds to more decisive actions. " German Viola von Krahon, the MEP, and the deputy chairman of the European Parliament delegation with the Association with Ukraine, said NB that "fake referendums from the event of the event should not change anything.

" After all, she said, the EU continues to see these territories, including Crimea, an integral part of Ukraine, and continues to assist in the full restoration of its territorial integrity. "Theatrical" referendums "are organized only for Putin's internal audience," the MEP is convinced. - He could not activate the internal support of the war because of the purely absurd and vague goals of the so -called "special operation".

Now the dictator hopes that if he declares the occupied territories of Ukraine part of Russia, Russian "patriots" will suddenly perceive this war as Russian-defense and rush to the front. "This absurd trick will only accelerate the death of the Russian Empire," the politician said. According to von Kramong, Europe is increasingly released from Russian dependence, but new and tougher sanctions should still be imposed, and the old ones are more exacerbated.

"All in the European Parliament are one," the politician added. "These fake referendums mean nothing, and we continue the adamant support of Ukraine, diplomatically, financially, and most importantly - military. " Commenting on Putin's nuclear blackmail, the MEP said that Russia has been using it for 7 months. The event has already heard it before, so, in her opinion, the Russian President "should not blackmail the event with this cheap reception.