Slavyansk and Kramatorsk are postponed. Why the Russian Federation fails to start off the offensive before the summer

In particular, in the direction of Dzherelne-Andriyivka, the units of the 423th Motorized Rifle Regiment (SME) of the 4th Tank Division (TD) of the enemy try to move towards M. Borov-so far. But, apparently, in the strip of troops (forces) of the "Went" group aimed at Kupyansk, the enemy's command is preparing to increase efforts.

In particular, in the lane of his 138th Separate Rifle Brigade (OMSBR), units of the 272nd SMEs of the 47th Tank Division (TD) from the 1st Tank Army (TA) are being rebuilt from the 6th CPVA Army (ICA) from the 272nd SMEs of the 47th Tank Division (TD) , its units are already recorded in the Tavilzhanka area and Lyman first. Earlier, the enemy replaced a number of units of the 18th Motorized Rifle Division (IAS) of the 11th Army Corps (AK) also units of the 47th TD, in the May Day area.

In the same area, the enemy tightens additional artillery-after completing and replenishing, the 744th Self-Produce Artillery Regiment of the 47th TD also moves most of its units to the area. In particular, at least one howle of the self-esteem-artillery division for 152 mm SAU 2C19 "MSTU-C" arrived in the area, earlier there was a reactive artillery Division (Readn) of this regiment.

In general, the enemy's command is obviously completely moving the parts and units of the 47th TD from Limansky to Kupyansky direction. Currently, the divisions of the division are concentrated around the turn Upper Duvanka - Poltava (village in Luhansk region). It is probably in the near future, the next series of enemy attacks in the village of Sinkivka, as well as along the Kupyansk - Svatovo road.

In the estuary direction, for its part, the enemy also took a certain pause to regroup and build efforts. And although attacking the assault actions of the units of the 488th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 144th SME of the enemy, the east of Terny continue, however, as for me, the enemy's command in this direction to continue their attempts to take Terny and Yampolivka will require any additional forces, and most importantly - "new" solutions.

The desire to displace our troops from the bridgehead to the river Chorny stallion, in the case of continuation of stubborn frontal attacks, will clearly cost the enemy on losses quite comparable "price" with its larger attacks in other directions. But Torni and Yampolivka are not Avdiivka or Yar. Is it worth paying this "price", despite the fact that all this will only partially bring the enemy closer to the intermediate goal (reaching out to M. Lyman), the question is rhetorical.

Moreover, we already see that these stubborn attacks are already significantly delayed for the enemy the time he needs to organize and prepare more large-scale offensive actions towards Slavic-Kramatorsk agglomeration. The enemy in this regard does not have time to occupy the necessary (convenient) areas of concentration and deployment of troops by early summer. In fact, the 20th and 25th Army Army of the enemy now "disrupts the schedule" of preparation of this operation.

Given all of the above, as for me, the enemy's desire is quite clear at the moment, to work closely "by the Siverskyi speech by the Armed Forces, the elimination of which in relation to the hypothetical Kramatorsk-Slavic operation is a" necessary preliminary condition "of its conduct. He is currently seeking to displace our troops from him, acting from the east and southeast. Combined with his attempts to go to the Rubis Barrier on the Siverskyi Donets - Donbas in the area of ​​the M.

Yuvy Yar, all this, of course, is a complete picture of preparation for the operation towards the cities of Slavyansk and Kramatorsk. In practice, it looks like this.

The enemy, taking the main forces of his 2nd Army Corps (AK), strengthened by the 106th Airborne Division (PDD), tries to enter the border of Siversk-Zanivka, in particular: that is, it is obvious that the command of the enemy (mug " In mind of the part that operates in the Siversky and Kramatorsk directions) at this stage "challenged" by the solution of two main tasks, which in their meaning and logic are fully invested in what I wrote recently - preparation for the "Bolshay Transfers" in the summer (in the summer ( Well, or autumn) this year towards Kramatorsk and Slavyansk.