Prepare for the offensive: ISW analyzed whether the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation will create effective reserves

Increasing mobilization in the Russian Federation is unlikely to help the Kremlin in the offensive, and Russian officials are concerned about reducing the level of employment, writes ISW analysts. The Russian Federation continues to intensify efforts to mobilize on the eve of Russia's expected offensive operation in the summer of 2024. In order to avoid another partial mobilization, the Russian Federation decided to call reservists.

This is stated in the report of the American Institute of War Study (ISW) for April 18. The chairman of the Moscow Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technology and a member of the Civil Consultative Council of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation Ruslan Pukhov, argued that the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation could recruit 300,000 personnel in 2024. The Ministry of Education of Ukraine claims that Russia is gaining about 30,000 servicemen.

It is reported that Russian officials are concerned about reducing the level of employment and may be intended to increase payments to Russian servicemen. Experts, referring to the sources of Bloomberg, note that one -time payments for signing a contract in the regions of the Russian Federation increased by 40% and make an average of 470 thousand rubles (4992 US dollars), and the Russian insider source states that some authorities are offering a million rubles. .

"This is unlikely to lead to an additional 200,000 servicemen before expected Russian offensive efforts in the summer of 2024. In recent months, Russian military has increased forces at a speed equal Reserves of operational and strategic level, " - said ISW analysts.

The institute believes that Russian troops are unlikely to create significant reserves on the eve of the expected offensive in the summer of 2024 and will be able to carry out large -scale attacks in 2024, if the Ukrainian forces have something to resist them.

"Russian troops will most likely use these reserves as they did so - as immediately accessible living reserves for re -completing and strengthening the dedicated units that conduct heavy infantry attacks with periodic limited mechanized assaults," analysts said. Recall that the Air Force journalists found that the life of the average "Wagner" or the Storm Z Fighter in the war in Ukraine lasts from an average of half a year.