Meeting in Ankara. Will Erdogan be planted at the common table of Zelensky and Putin

Some Turkish media have given this opportunity, noting that the visits of the President of the aggressor and Vladimir Zelensky may take place one by one. Topics for conversations: the war of the Russian Federation against Ukraine and "Grain Agreement". However, Putin's spokeswoman Dmitry Peskov was soon, although he confirmed that Putin and Erdogan had agreed to meet in the near future, but said: the inauguration of Russia will be represented by the State Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin.

Zelensky's visit to Turkey in Kiev is still silent. Although experts suggest that the President of Ukraine will be present in Ankara. At the end of May, Recep Erdogan won the Turkey presidential election. Races were a difficult task for him. His closest competitor Kemal Kilicldaroglu lost with a minimum difference of votes - only 4%. On the eve of the vote, the latter declared Russia's interference in voting.

"Dear Russian friends, you stand for installations, conspiracies, content Deep Fake and records that were exposed in this country yesterday. If you want to continue our friendship after May 15, keep your hands away from the Turkish state. We still stand for cooperation And friendship, "he wrote on Twitter on May 12, duplicating messages in Russian and Turkish. As you know, the connections of Turkey and Russia at different levels are long enough and strong.

And no matter who would lead Turkey, they would remain. And too with Erdogan. They have repeatedly called each other friends. In particular, in an interview with CNN Erdogan stated that he would continue to deepen relations with Russia and shared that "Putin with Putin with Putin. " "Putin is now more needed by Erdogan than Erdogan Putin," said the director of the Middle Eastern Research Center Igor Semivolos. First, these two countries are increasing economic ties.

For example, since 2014, several pipelines have been built that supply Russian gas to southern Europe. Currently, it is about building a gas hub in Turkey, which will help Russia by mixing fuel, supplying "goods" to European buyers. Or Russia builds the first nuclear power plant in the south of Turkey - "Akkui". In April 2023, the import of nuclear fuel for her.

Although Erdogan calls the construction of a "major national project", it is in fact the result of an agreement between the Governments of Turkey and the Russian Federation, and it will be exploited by a Russian giant "Rosatom". The Turks, in turn, try to fill those business niches that were formed through the termination of work with the Russian Federation in connection with the aggression of the Russian Federation and Western sanctions. Secondly, Russia sells or can sell weapons to Turkey.

In 2017, the country bought the C-400 system in Russia, for which it received a huge portion of criticism from NATO. And when the United States expelled Turkey from the F-35 aircraft purchase program, Erdogan mentioned the possibility of purchasing Russian Su-35 fighter jets. Thirdly, Turkey helps Russia to circumvent Western sanctions. For example, there were attempts by Wagner PEC to buy military systems from foreign suppliers and send this weapon through Turkey.

This is stated in "fused" into the network of secret documents of the Pentagon. Also, experts say Turkey can be a mediator in the supply of secret technologies, electronics, chips, components of vehicles used for military purposes. In addition, Russian sub -oligarchs and government representatives have property in Turkey, which is not at risk of confiscation. And, of course, it should not be forgotten that in 2016 Russia helped Erdogan during the so -called attempt at the coup.

At the same time, the relations of the two countries began to improve significantly. It should be noted that in 2015 they were almost hostile-because of the confusion of Turkey, the Russian Su-24 aircraft in its airspace. However, experts say that, despite such close relationships and public statements, it is difficult to call Erdogan and Putin friends.

They are opponents who are trying to fight for human and natural resources, political influence in Africa, in the Middle East, the Caucasus and even the Balkans. And Ukraine is also the subject of such a dispute. After Erdogan's victory in the election, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy gave him one of the first to win and stated that he was counting on further strengthening of the partnership.

Experts say that the relationship between Kiev and Ankara will remain business - Turkey will try to be a mediator in relations with Ukraine and receive a benefit for themselves. "The issue of" grain corridor "for Turkey is a question of their own economic interests," says focus political expert Maxim Jigun.

"In the conditions of falling economy, inflation and depreciation of the Turkish lyre, they need to raise the economy, and the grain corridor helps to do it because most ships that export Ukrainian grain - Turkish. Turkey has the right to buy Ukrainian grain and resell it. It is a factor of Erdogan's influence on African countries, where it then brings grain and looks like a leader that protects poor peoples from famine. It is bilateral ".

The last nine years of Ankara cannot be called anti -Ukrainian. From the moment of occupation in 2014, the Russian troops of Crimea Ankara has repeatedly stated that she would not recognize the annexed Russian Ukrainian territories. Subsequently, she began to sell weapons to Ukraine - Baracar drones.

Even after the start of a full -scale invasion of Turkey began to block the sea ducts, preventing an increase in the number of ships of the Fleet of the Russian Federation in the waters of the Black Sea. Now it depends on the export of Ukrainian grain, and sometimes the exchange or liberation of Ukrainian prisoners. On the eve of the inauguration, experts are inclined: Volodymyr Zelenskyy should go to Ankara, because Turkey is an important country for Ukraine.

In addition, during the event, it would be possible to talk not only with Erdogan, but also leaders of other countries close to Turkey. But in wartime, all such trips depend on security measures. "About Zelensky's visit to inauguration, we see that after the visit of President Zelensky to the United States, a virtually new page of this war began.

The President began not only to be on the spot and coordinate the process of defense of the Ukrainian state, but also to more actively join various formats with foreign countries. realizing that personal visits of the President give much more efficiency than conversations by phone and correspondence support of foreign leaders of Ukraine, - says Maxim Jigun. - Personal communication is much more efficient and multilateral, can cover a wider range of questions. - A very realistic plan of action.

" He notes that this trip can be important, since since the beginning of a full-scale war, Vladimir Zelensky communicated with Erdogan only in an online format, with Turkey remains one of the key international players in the context of the Russian-Ukrainian war. "And because Turkey has retained neutrality, and Erdogan builds an intermediary mission and function. And because Turkey is actively involved in the implementation of the grain corridor," he adds.

"Zelensky will go, I see no obstacles," the director of the Center for Middle Eastern Studies Igor Semivolos. , military-technical production, coordination and coordination of foreign and political changes within the framework of cooperation and work with Turkish experts and from the environment of Erdogan. " Jigun also thinks that Zelensky can lobby in Ankara Zelensky, and not only Ukraine.

"We understand that Erdogan has many difficulties in relations with NATO and NATO itself - blocks Sweden's entry. Turkey is actually the only country that does it," the expert adds. - And here, Zelensky, as a figure quite visible on the international site would try this issue to resolve or at least encourage Erdogan to be more compressed in the context of a collective event with Turkey.

In Turkey, especially during the last election campaign, there was a noticeable trend as Erdogan's rhetoric has changed - it became very anti -Western, anti -American. He even said that in the event of a losing election, we can assume that there was an American coup in Turkey. Now there is no way to come to Erdogan with someone else, say, Western leaders of NATO, no. And Zelensky, as a person who is undeniable in the end of the war in to our country and integrate us into NATO, maybe.

This is so multi -handed. On the one hand, put NATO shoulder, and on the other - to lock our own issues. " In general, the trip to Zelensky to Ankar is an opportunity to convey to international partners that negotiations with Russia are possible without Putin because it is not a legitimate subject of international policy. "Negotiations are also possible only on the conditions that Ukraine determines for itself acceptable.

That is, it is the exit of Russian troops outside Ukraine and secondly-not freezing the conflict, but its final phase with the return of all territories without any compromises. And Erdogan has an absolute understanding, Concerning Ukraine's position, ”Dzhigun adds. As for Putin, his meeting with Erdogan is noticed, but its details are unknown. Experts suggest that it can take place not in Turkey, but in Russia.

You can see that Putin has not left the country lately - he left her in December 2022 on a trip to Belarus. In Ankara, as already noted, Volodin goes. Probably, looking at the decision of the International Criminal Court, which issued a warrant for his arrest because of involvement in the deportation of Ukrainian children, the Russian leader is afraid.

Although Turkey has not ratified the Roman Statute and does not recognize the jurisdiction of the Court in the Hague (unlike 123 countries), Putin may still not risk leave. "I think Putin has a personal safety service. Based on the arrest warrant - different can happen. No one now can guarantee one hundred percent security outside his own country.

In addition, it is not clear how Putin will feel along with other politicians, considering Putin and his entourage are very afraid that the Russian president will ignore everything, no one will communicate with him. They try not only to avoid physical but also a reputational threat to their leader, " - adds the Director of the Middle Eastern Studies Center Semivolos.

As for the subject of conversation, experts are convinced that you should not expect anything new from the meeting of Erdogan and Putin: the latter will traditionally make their requirements that are not something new to Ukraine. And this is the restoration of the supply of ammonia, the accession of the bank to the SWIFT system of Russian banks and negotiations with Ukraine under Moscow.