Putin's victory in doubt: what is holding back Russia's offensive and leading it to defeat - the media

For example, one of the captured soldiers was in uniform for only 12 days, demonstrating problems with training and mobilizing personnel. In 2025, Russia has recruited more than 290,000 civilian reservists, but their training is limited and the financial costs to the state are significant. In addition, the deployment of reservists abroad is legally restricted, which adds complexity to the planning of military operations. Economic pressure on Moscow is also becoming a serious obstacle.

GDP growth in 2025 is projected at just 0. 6%, inflation is over 10%, and interest rates are as high as 17%. The cost of the war is about $150 billion and is financed mostly by oil and gas. Economists note that such a financial burden makes Russia's situation unstable in the medium and long term. At the front, the situation also remains problematic for the Kremlin.

In particular, despite local advances near Pokrovsk and Mirnograd, Russian troops are losing equipment and armored vehicles much faster than they are achieving results. For example, recently during the battle, tanks got stuck in a swampy area, and Ukrainian forces destroyed 16 pieces of equipment. This disproportionality of costs and gains makes offensive operations difficult and costly.

"Despite advances near Pokrovsk and Mirnograd, for example, Ukrainian air defenses have not been breached at all. What is clear from US intelligence headquarters is that it assesses Russia's massive efforts (including reservists, military equipment, artillery) as completely disproportionate to its advantages on the battlefield. And this is an unacceptable situation in the medium to long term. " - says the material.

Moreover, Ukraine has significantly strengthened its position in the field of military technology. Kyiv produces its own drones in increased volumes and deploys new Flamingo missiles with a range of up to 3,000 km and precise GPS guidance, which allows it to strike inside Russia. Russian technology, including Heran-2 drones and supersonic missiles, has improved, but is inferior to Ukraine's in strategic importance and accuracy.