China's war, peace to friends: what Trump achieves with his total tariffs

- dominance in the Western Hemisphere and formation on its base of the geopolitical cluster "Two America". The Five Union is stored - the US is imposed on moderate duties on Britain, Australia and New Zealand. As for Canada is still ahead. Trump with Saudi Arabia loyalically cost - however, but nothing to the United States is exported. Also relatively low duties on Egypt and Turkey.

The role of Turkey as a global platform of an industrial narroshoring (the creation of an industrial platform with a sight in large markets - EU and the US) is increased repeatedly. Most likely, this was determined by Erdogan's internal political radicalism (the arrest of Istanbul mayor). Everyone who wrote about the Turkish Maidan and the collapse of Erdogan's political regime can be very mistaken. In many countries, businesses will now start closing, jobs and salaries will be reduced.

Stability will remain in few countries. And Turkey can be among them, if they do not squeeze protest movement. And so, the world moves to a dangerous recession. It is possible that Trump has decided to plan a "global bubble" planned in the first year of his cadence, catalyzing this dangerous process.

Otherwise, he could get a recession in two years, that is, before the finish of his second cadence, repeating the "Epic Faile" during a pandemic when he missed victory from his hands in the election finals. If the bubble should burst, be it planned, not spontaneously, at the most inappropriate moment. Trump's strategy is clear: to pierce the global bubble, to create a sea of ​​instability on the outer circuit, so that capital flows rush to "quiet harbor", mainly in the USA.

But Latin America, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Britain with Australia will fall somewhat. The recipe for how to get on the list of "Trump's friends" is very simple: you need to give up geopolitical ambitions of development, like Latin America. Or be obedient as Egypt. Or give money like Saudi Arabia. Or be a relative like Britain or Australia. Or an important ally like Turkey. All others - . . . . from the beach. The author expresses a personal opinion that may not coincide with the editorial position.