Three weeks before spring. What to wait on the front line from the Russian Federation and what is dangerous for Ukraine in the rear

As it "can't" looks "in the material". Trump recently mentioned the scale of Russian losses, marking the figure of 900 thousand (apparently wounded and killed). The Information Resistance Group continues to count those killed who were publicly recognized in Russia itself. That is, it is a minimum of losses. As of January 30, 2025, there are 95848 names that can be structured by regions. And about 450 people who need additional attribution.

In the period from December 31 to January 30, 5089 killed were shown in Russia. It's without Koreans, with Crimea, but without ORDLO. Some of these losses are in the previous periods, but the lion's lobe is fresh. According to the experience of our calculations, the number of killed should be at least twice as high. That is, Russian troops only lost from 10 thousand people to the moon. If you count the classic ratio of 1: 3, the losses of the Russian army are at least 40 thousand people a month.

And this is more than Russians attract mercenaries. Add deserters here. What I mentioned: Rosarmia has been a gap between losses and replenishment for several months, they burn reserves. They have stopped teaching recruits for a long time, throwing them in the shortest possible time. The gap increases. Hence all these deaths on crutches. Dipstite has already noted two digits: that's what? This is that the autumn offensive wave of Rosarmia has passed its peak and moves down.

They already need regrouping to expand the attacking actions in the Pokrovsky direction. A month ago, I expressed a hypothesis that by March, Russians will lose their ability to press and move even at a January pace if the trends remain. To break this trend, they should: the first without a new wave of mass mobilization is complicated. The second option has two components - internal destabilization in Ukraine and interruption of external assistance.

External assistance interruption can occur for purely external reasons and internal destabilization. Because the question will be: who will be the final recipient? Thus, in all constructions, internal destabilization is a cornerstone. Therefore, they will put the resource in growing here. It is not necessary to be a fortune teller to predict - the next spike will be timed to the third anniversary of a full -scale invasion. It is worth showing special cold -bloodedness.

What on the other hand? She jumped information that the assistance was stopped but restored. If the former volume is preserved, it is a certain stability for the summer. France's signal about aircraft. A signal from the Netherlands on aircraft. The front will have a little effect on the front, but it has to affect the safe in the rear (as part of the air defense). Well, Kursk, which eats Russian resources.

For Putin, the ugly prospect of receiving guests on May 9 is looming, demonstrating the inability to protect his territory. Again. This does not mean that our problems are not visible. Even as you can see. In the Kharkiv region in the two -year area, everything is difficult, but our troops are impossible. And not just there. Together. Provided: - in the spring, preconditions for temporary (!) Stabilization of the front line. This is a material basis.

And then politics begins as the art of possible, cognitive war, etc. All these dials and laying in Moscow and Washington know better than us. And they know a lot that we do not know. Especially - in terms of the real state of the economy and the opportunities of production of weapons. There is a conflict of two motivations. On the one hand, you can force activity to consolidate the preconditions to stabilize the LBZ and turn them into a ceasefire.

The stabilization of the front has already been called a prerequisite. On the other hand, Putin will definitely try to try to endure for another six months. What it means: at first they will take the time, and as a result, the first round of Trump Putin contacts will end in failure and will not lead to shifts. Then another six months. And that is logic. Because this year is not only May 9, which is relevant for Europe, but also September - which is relevant for the APR.

And the Trump team makes it clear that the European Theater (except Israel) is a matter for NATO European allies. And Washington clearly marked priorities with calls, first meetings (Japan, Australia, South Korea, etc. ). Therefore, if it does not work in the spring, a large -scale symbolic drive will be in September. Where - on the side of Russia - China will be actively involved.