China and the war in Ukraine: is Russia's victory beneficial to Beijing?

Let's try to see, and what are China's interests in this war? 1. China wants neither defeat nor victory of Russia. He needs a weak Russia centered on China. And the result of this war, when both consider themselves the winners, is ideal for China. The main red line is Odesa, which should be Ukrainian. Because the strengthening of Russia on the Black Sea in a relatively short term will change the balance of power in the Black Sea basin. And this is against the interests of China. 2.

We need to immediately refute the myth about China, which almost took over the Far East. This is a lie, and now there are no plans to relocate millions of Chinese to Siberia. At this stage, China is betting on pumping out resources, which will be facilitated by a weak center and the reorientation of at least part of large business to China. This is the main strategy of the PRC for the coming years. We are not talking about any fascination of the Trans-Urals at all. 3.

Due to technological degradation and a deep demographic crisis, Russia has only two ways of development: either an attempt at technological diversification with the West (the condition is the end of the war and at least the appearance of playing by US rules), or slipping into absolute technological vassalage from the PRC with the corresponding political consequences. Putin still believes that he has enough time to win the war and then try to diversify. 4.

Is China interested in ending the war now (within six months)? The answer to this question is not linear, as many believe. The war in Ukraine is part of a more complex game, where Russian resources and technological vassalage are only a significant, but part. What other parts are there in this game? This is not an exhaustive but important list of issues that will affect the end of our war. 5. All this, at least now, is not the division of the world, as many people think.

This is the development of complex rules of the game in a world where two hegemons are not going to fight (at least in ground operations) for their allies. And this is a world in which neither the United States nor China currently offers a coherent value concept. In general, we are entering a transition period where, unfortunately, values ​​will not play a significant role, and situational alliances will be more important than long-term agreements.

On the plus side, China and the US are doomed to come to an agreement. And therefore, the topic of Ukraine will become part of the agreements on Europe. I will only repeat what I have been trying to convey for many months: without the normalization of relations with the PRC, the game will not be played by us, but in many ways for us. The author expresses his personal opinion, which may not coincide with the editorial position.