A asteroid dangerous for Earth needs to be destroyed by nuclear missile, scientists warn

The study is published on the Arxiv preprint server, Live Science writes. In focus. Technology has appeared its Telegram channel. Subscribe not to miss the latest and most intrusive news from the world of science! The potentially dangerous asteroid of 2024 YR4 with a diameter of approximately 55 meters became known early this year shortly after its opening in December 2024. Calculations have shown that there is a probability of 3. 1%that this space stone will fall to Earth in 2032.

The fall of such an asteroid can destroy the big city. But already in February, scientists found that the probability that the asteroid will be cut into the ground is almost zero, but to be more precise, it is 0. 28%. At the beginning of the summer of this year, scientists have found that an asteroid 2024 YR4 with a probability of 4% could be cut per month. The clash of an object of this size, and also relatively close to the Earth, carries a threat to our technologies in the Earth orbit.

The authors of the new study say that if the asteroid falls a month, it will lead to a large number of debris that will fly into space and can reach low Earth orbit. Thus satellites and other spacecraft can be destroyed. Also, if the international space station, which is planned to be decommissioned in the early 2030s, still has to work in orbit, then small stones can seriously damage it. Scientists say that any attempt to change the trajectory of asteroid movement may not be successful.

Although NASA has already conducted a successful experiment to change the orbit of the Earth's asteroid, scientists believe that with an asteroid 2024 YR4, this may not work. The fact is that there is very little time to understand its characteristics, unknown its exact mass, and almost no time to prepare such a mission. But most importantly, according to scientists, an attempt to change the orbit of asteroid 2024 YR4 can cause it to accidentally crash into the ground.

Therefore, scientists suggest splitting asteroid by nuclear explosion. To do this, you need to send a spacecraft to the asteroid, which will be able to run a nuclear rocket to crash the asteroid into pieces. But this mission should be sent to space between 2029 and 2031 before the asteroid may encounter the month in 2032. However, scientists remind that the likelihood that the asteroid will fly past the moon is 96%, and yet it is impossible to exclude its fall to the moon.