"The Armed Forces will reach the Lukashenko Palace": what will happen if Belarus attacks Ukraine

The successes of the Armed Forces in the Kursk region are forced to nervous President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko. His statements about the transfer closer to Ukraine, who have never participated in hostilities, were exaggerated. Focus found out what was happening on the Belarusian-Ukrainian border and whether it is worth fearing the invasion. President of Belarus Oleksandr Lukashenko again injects a military situation on the border with Ukraine.

According to him, almost a third of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus (RBI Armed Forces), including air defense forces, aviation, anti-aircraft missile and radio technical troops, were approached to the border. The Commander of the Air Force of Belarus Andriy Lukyanovich is convinced that NATO countries allegedly want to enter an open conflict with Belarus and Russia.

Currently, according to the commander, the "giant grouping group is concentrated on the Ukrainian border, and the exploration is conducted by drones. " Obviously, Minsk intensified the border group in response to the military operation of the Armed Forces in the Kursk region of Russia. 12 days after its beginning, the ally of the Russian President Vladimir Putin accused Kiev of aggression and departure more than 120,000 soldiers to the border with Belarus.

"At the Belarusian-Ukrainian border, more than 120 thousand military people are holding. Seeing their aggressive policies, we have placed our military along the entire border," he said on August 18. Ukrainian border guards have not recorded the activity of Belarusian troops near the border since August 19. In a comment to Focus, a representative of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine stated that the situation at the border with Belarus has not changed as of August 21 as of August 21.

"The situation is constantly controlled by all the components of defense forces. Ukraine does not pose a threat to Belarus, but as long as this country is under the influence of Russia, this direction remains threatening to us. We will pay all the necessary attention," he says. According to Demchenko, what is happening on the other side of the border monitors intelligence.

The Ukrainian forces are ready to respond to the change of the situation, in Kiev they hope for the common sense of the Belarusian side. Belarus is a closed country, so it is extremely difficult to assess the combat capability of its army. The approximate number of the Belarusian army can reach up to 60,000 people today, clarifies the AR Agency.

The British International Institute for Strategic Studies believes that the number of Belarusian military together with doctors, drivers and kitchen workers reaches a maximum of 75 thousand. Many Western and Ukrainian experts are skeptical of the hole readiness of reserves. The basis of the Armed Forces are four mechanized brigades, two paratroopers and special operations. However, soldiers did not participate in real fighting. Most of the Minsk armored vehicles inherited from the USSR.

According to British analysts, Belarusians have two artillery and four anti-aircraft missile brigades, three anti-aircraft missile regiments, as well as one rocket and reactive-artillery brigade. The constant stay of the units of the Armed Forces of the RB on the border with Ukraine has become a well -established practice after the beginning of the Russian invasion. Lukashenko announces the tanks, aviation and artillery, but his statements have not yet been practical.

Ukrainian intelligence sees the movement of Belarusian equipment to the Kursk region, but not to Ukraine, says the focus of the reserve colonel, an expector of the General Staff of the Armed Forces Vladislav Seleznev. "And they go on the tanks not the Belarusian, but the Russian military. There is a transfer of part of the weapons back of the Russian Federation," Seleznyov states.

Most likely, Putin presses on Lukashenko in order to strengthen his own army, but no one speaks about the participation of the Armed Forces in the fighting. The Belarusian volunteers of the Kastusa Kalinowski Regiment, formed in March 2022, defend Ukraine from the invaders. Other units have not yet been spotted in hot spots. Speaking about the low amount of living force in the Armed Forces at the level of Britain, the expert notes the inability of Minsk to maintain a large army.

"This requires serious budget expenditures. Is there so much money in Belarus? Lukashenko is acting rationally: translates military expenses to the Russian Federation and hopes for supporting her army," the analyst says. The deputy director of the Center for Army Research, Conversion and Disarmament Mikhail Samus also speaks about the lack of real opportunities in Minsk. "When Belarusians participated in hostilities or at least in peacekeeping operations? They did not leave the country at all.

Combing in the number of tanks and other equipment - does not mean to show efficiency on the battlefield. If you take into account the number and volume of resources, we do not have It would be a chance to resist the Russian Federation. Vladislav Seleznyov believes that at the beginning of a full -scale invasion of the Russian Federation in Ukraine in Lukashenko there were clearly better conditions for aggression.

When in March 2022 the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation stood near Kiev, the Belarusian military could help them, but in general they were tuned against the war. Minsk was limited to providing airspace for Russian rockets, aviation and routes of heavy machinery with land. The attack on Ukraine, as Michael Samus says, will start the rapid destruction of Lukashenko. Being in power for more than 30 years, he only maintained his regime, so he often declares mutually exclusive theses.

The operation in the Kursk region even more assured Lukashenko that it is not necessary to look at Ukraine. If Belarusians help the Russians to repel the attacks of Ukrainian troops in the Kursk region, the Armed Forces "can reach the Presidential Palace of Independence in Minsk," the expert is sure. "The plan is good, but it is unlikely to like Lukashenko," Samus summed up. We will remind, Lithuania on August 19 began to build a military base near Belarus.