"Will be defeated": Russia is waiting for the US to stop supporting Ukraine - CSIS

The material indicates that as long as Russian President Vladimir Putin believes that he can achieve his goals by simply waiting, when the event is retreating, he is unlikely to agree to something less than the annexation of at least a large part of Ukraine by force. Journalists emphasized that US President Donald Trump's statement to increase assistance to Ukraine and impose sanctions against Russia is an important step towards blasting this faith, but he needs to finish the case.

It is noted that Russia has some hopes that it can win Ukraine if it is waiting for the moment when the US support is exhausted. This idea, the publication adds, is called "theory of victory". Initially, the Kremlin conducted a campaign of shock and fear, combined with the elimination of the political leadership of Ukraine. This would allow pro -Russian elements in Ukraine to take power with the support of Russian occupation forces.

In this case, it is said in the material, Putin would be able to capture Kiev within three days. However, when the Russian offensive on the capital of Ukraine failed due to resistance of the population and the only support of the event, signs of strategic change of the Kremlin began to appear. President Putin mobilized reservists, transferred the economy to martial law and launched a long -term internal propaganda campaign to prepare his people for a long war.

Although the Kremlin has not publicly voiced the new theory of victory, Western analysts suggest that Russia is trying to exhaust the patient's patience. Thus, the Kremlin hopes that the decline in American support will weaken Ukraine's will to fight, which "will be defeated on the battlefield. " The publication indicates that Russian officials believe that war is more important to them than for the US. Western experts also believe that asymmetry of interests plays in favor of Moscow.

Therefore, the desire of President Trump to complete the war through negotiations is often interpreted as a recognition of the victory of Russia. In the United States, it seems that other conflicts in the world are more attention than war in Ukraine. It is given that residents of US and Western Europe have been looking for news about Israel, Hamas or Iran in recent year than about Ukraine or Russia.

It is noted that in order to end the war in Ukraine, the US must demonstrate that they are ready and capable of adhering to the chosen course. A good first step in this direction, according to the publication, is Trump's statement about increasing military assistance to our country. It also applies to an ultimatum that if Russia does not agree to peace talks, then the United States will impose sanctions against the Russian Federation and its allies.

According to the authors of the material, the authority of President Trump will be crucial for the undermining of the Russian theory of victory. If the US and the EU continue to increase its investments in weapons, they will help to understand Russia that will continue to support Ukraine.