Nuclear threat or offensive of the Russian Federation: what to wait for Ukraine before Putin's birthday

On the eve of the President's Birthday, rumors and speculations began to emerge. Russia is preparing to train because of the "threat of nuclear blows", and Ukraine, meanwhile, is actively visited by Western officials. No one knows what is happening in Putin's head, so the issue of using mass weapons is still open, military analysts say focus. Russian President Vladimir Putin celebrates his birthday on October 7, as in the previous two years he is going to "work".

However, the city where the dictator is, is unknown. The most likely options-Moscow, St. Petersburg or Sochi, write, Roszmi. Last October, the dictator celebrated the 70th anniversary with colleagues at the informal meeting of the CIS heads in St. Petersburg, and in 2021 he was at a meeting with permanent members of the Russian Rada. On the eve of the birthday of the Russian dictator began to appear forecasts of a possible exacerbation of a full -scale war of Russia with Ukraine.

The attention of the media and experts attracted Moscow's plans to arrange large -scale civil defense exercises on October 3 because of the "threat of nuclear war". It is emphasized that these exercises will take place for the first time in the history of Russia.

"In the face of loosening of generally recognized norms and principles of international law, the danger of armed conflicts with the participation of nuclear powers, in particular near the borders of Russia, is increasing," the organizers of maneuvers say. The Russian segment of social networks spread information about the alleged ultimatum of Putin to President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky. Russia can go into "a real war that has not yet begun.

" In parallel with rumors about military escalation in Ukraine, on October 2, all foreign ministers of the EU countries are encountered. This event usually occurs in Brussels. The head of European diplomacy Josep Borrel stressed that European officials will discuss security obligations to Ukraine in the face of a great war. In addition, on September 28, the French Minister of Defense Sebastian Lecorton and the new head of the UK Ministry of Defense Grant Shappps came to Kiev.

Why such high -ranking guests have visited the Ukrainian capital almost simultaneously, it remains unclear. The likelihood of drawing rocket strokes on the birthday of the dictator is small, because the air defense systems can disrupt the holiday, considers the foreign policy programs, coordinator of international projects "Razumkov Center", military expert Alexei Melnyk. "If there is a resonant attack from October 4 to October 7, it will be tried to tie Putin's birthday.

Ukrainian intelligence and special services can prepare their carefully planned gift," the expert said. Another scenario, according to him, is a provocation with a lot of casualties from Russian special services within the Russian Federation with the subsequent accusation of Ukraine. The question of the use of nuclear weapons is open due to the extreme unpredictability of his head, Melnyk added. "One thing is nuclear blackmail and another is a performance.

Any use of tactical warheads will radically change the military situation. The Russians are gradually accustomed that the nuclear war is quite real and only helps the country," he continues. As an example, Melnyk mentioned the statements of the State Duma and Lieutenant General of the Russian Army Andrei Gurulev about a nuclear blow to the village of Rabotine, where the Ukrainian army has succeeded. "Rabotine is an ideal place for the use of tactical nuclear weapons.

They gathered there, on this offensive grouping was covered with a" copper pelvis ". . . and even with those forces that are, we are quite capable of going forward, freeing Zaporozhye, and maybe, maybe Even the Dnipropetrovsk region, "the Russian deputy said. Despite the large-scale civilian training in Russia, the nuclear component can be completely excluded from the agenda, says the focus of the Armed Forces Colonel in stock, military instructor Roman Svitan.

"Putin explained why it is impossible to use nuclear weapons. In the case of local confrontation with Ukraine it is impossible. In the case of news about exacerbation from October 4 - nothing to them (the army of Russia) to sharpen. The enemy has a certain amount of forces on the eastern flank in the Luhansk direction. Positive. They did not show the dynamics there, "he explained. Option with tactical nuclear weapons in border areas should not be considered as it will lead to the effect of dominoes.

The event can be struck and several countries will appear in several countries within 1-2 months, a weapon of mass destruction will appear, Svitan added. Focus wrote earlier that the Russian President can congratulate his colleagues originally. There will be no massive blow to the cities of Ukraine, but the murders of opposition in Russia should be expected. It should be noted that Russia can begin to destabilize the situation in the Balkans.