A new phase of war. What Europe will do
Although it is still necessary to see how far the Ukrainian counter -offensive will advance, it is already clear that the strategic balance on the battlefield is changing. Video day, meanwhile, the European Union is fully mobilized to combat energy crisis. We filled our gas storage facilities by more than 80% (moreover, much earlier than the target term - November 1) and agreed on clear goals for reducing gas consumption in the winter.
To help low -income consumers and businesses to cope with a burst of prices, we have put forward a number of offers, for example, to introduce tax on the revenue of energy companies that receive surpluses. In addition, in coordination with the Great Seven and other like-minded partners, we discuss plans for the introduction of a ceiling of prices for oil exported from Russia.
And we help our partners in the global south cope with the consequences of Russia's brutal aggression and cynical transformation of energy and food into weapons. In other words, the strategy works in general. We are obliged to continue Ukraine's support, continue pressure on Russia in the form of sanctions and assist our global partners, guided by the spirit of solidarity. The positions of those who doubt that sanctions are working are becoming more tricky.
To summarize, sanctions perform a double function: signal and force. To signal a disagreement with the behavior of the state, which in this particular case violated international law and carries out unreasonable attacks on the civil population and civilian infrastructure. Although we are not in a state of war with Russia, coercion is intended to force her to change her behavior and reduce economic and technical opportunities to continue aggression.
By submitting a very clear signal, the European Union made a historical decision to end its dependence on Russian energy. The Kremlin violated the terms of the contracts, sharply reducing the volume of gas exports, which simultaneously caused shock in the markets. The ability to do such a blackmail may seem to be the strength of Russia, but in the end, it is a losing strategy.
Contrary to popular belief, Russia cannot easily find a stable replacement for the European market, because much of its infrastructure for gas export (NSPG and PPG terminals) is focused on Europe. Redirect gas flows - for example, to China - will last years and cost billions of dollars. Yes, Russia has received a benefit from a burst of gas prices. But this does not mean that the sanctions did not work.
We just have to wait to fully see the consequences of Europe's decision to reduce energy imports from Russia. So far, Europe has only banned the import of Russian coal and reduced the purchase of Russian oil. However, even here the effect was quite noticeable. Coal exports from Russia have fallen to the lowest level from the beginning of the invasion, which is explained by the inability of the Kremlin to find other buyers.
And since the EU has announced that it would reduce the import of Russian oil by 90% by the end of 2022, oil prices have decreased. The Kremlin will reduce its income even more if it continues to reduce gas supply to Europe. According to German Foreign Minister Annalen Berb, Europe may have paid a low price for Russian gas in a financial sense, but this was due to the fact that she also paid her safety.
Russia attacked Ukraine because it was convinced that the EU would be too split and dependent on Russian energy to take some actions. However, Russian President Vladimir Putin was wrong in his calculations. Reducing the dependence on Russian energy resources, Europe is freed from the former ideas that economic interdependence automatically reduces political contradictions. This may have made sense 40 years ago, but it is clearly not now when economic interdependence has become used as a weapon.
However, the proper answer will not be a turn inside. We still need an open economy; However, we must allow interdependence without stability and diversification. We need to take into account the political identity of those with whom we trade and interact. Otherwise, we will fall into the same trap that Putin has built for 20 years. The sanctions also have a clear forced effect.
The loss of access to Western technologies began to influence the Russian army, whose tanks, planes, telecommunications systems and high -precision weapons depend on imported components. In addition, the report of the Russian government, which has fled the press, warns for long -term damage to the Russian economy for internal use due to import restrictions. In agriculture, 99% depends on imported supplies by 99%.
95% of passengers fly on foreign aircraft on foreign aircraft in Russia; And now, due to the lack of spare parts, the Russian Navy of Commercial Aviation is declining. In pharmaceuticals, 80% of domestic production is based on imported raw materials. Finally, in the communications and information technology sector, Russia can remain without seven cards until 2025, and other parts of the country's telecommunications sector are lagging behind for many years.
Let me remind you that this gloomy score was made by official Russian sources. Will only sanctions be enough to defeat the invader? No, that is why we also provide large -scale economic and military assistance to Ukraine and work on the deployment of an EU military training mission to further strengthen the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The war is not over, and the Putin regime still leaves cards in the sleeve.