New Warsaw Treaty: As in 2025 Europe can become more important than the United States and anger Russia

The analyst Alexander Kochetkov dreams of forming a new system of Warsaw Treaty. But this time - not in the form of a pro -Russian bloc, but as a union of European countries that support Ukraine and help it. Binary policy and the new Warsaw Treaty of the year that is characterized as a period of sobering and getting rid of stupid illusions. With a coffee filice in Yalta in the coming years, it is not made. Only with our drones and rockets.

This was understood and even accepted by the Ukrainian authorities and society. About next year, the situation is extremely non -linear. Political turbulence goes crazy, the catastrophic breakage of the flow can happen anywhere anywhere. To predict something specific in such a situation is unconcealed charlatanism. But it is quite possible to mark the trends. And most importantly, next year we will observe (and participate!) In the transition of quantity to quality.

That is, as before, there will be no longer. There will be no longer a total admiration for the courage of Ukrainians and the desire of world politicians to somehow join our heroic resistance. There will be no standing standing in our president in the world parliaments. This two-year period of our situational subjectivity will end and will be played again, forcing certain decisions and strictly conditioned and controlling any assistance.

The election of Donald Trump is the transition to a binary political system. That is either a unit or zero, without analog nuances. Either obedient junior partner or unwanted burden. Either US policy leader, or one who can be protected only for money. And if the senior partner suddenly took Greenland or the Panama Canal, then they should be given with joy and gratitude. At least that is the 47th President of the United States.

Earlier, Trump demanded that European members of NATO contributions in 2% of GDP. Today he talks about 5%. And how many will be tomorrow? Such a binary approach to European countries (either vassal or enemy) can lead to the EU in the EU: why is we not much better than the attacker? Isn't it easier to create European security forces? Moreover, now the MIC of Europe is becoming a major source of support for Ukraine with weapons and ammunition, almost doubles its capacity last year.

At the same time, the EU will be able to build relationships with China and the Global South without looking back to the US. This is our hand because the Armed Forces will be the main force in such a European Defense Union, and this will be the best guarantee of our security. It would be very right that the Covenant on Collective Security in Europe to be signed in the capital of Poland.

Then the Warsaw Treaty would be reincarnated in the opposite hypostasis, and the Kremlin would simply appear from rage . . . Trump does not yet reject the thought that he will be able to end the war in Ukraine. But not in the day, of course. From Trump's surroundings, sober thoughts are heard that the most optimistic scenario of termination of hostilities is possible in the fall of the next, 2025.

And you do not even want to mention the pessimistic scenario, because in it the war of different levels of intensity will last for years. An optimistic scenario is possible if Putin tries to stand with Trump at one level during negotiations, which personally offends him. And then a very interesting option will open: American high -tech startups, led by Ilon Musk, create something like a consortium with the intention of dragging a significant part of the Pentagon budget of $ 850 billion.

And to test such latest weapons, managed by artificial intelligence, will, of course, in Ukraine. This will compensate for the lack of our mobilization resource and there will be serious problems in the army of non -imperia. However, if in this case China is also made on the side of Russia, too, with state -of -the -art combat developments, then the frontier part of Ukraine will turn into an area that is unusable for the existence of biological organisms larger than a rat.

However, more pleasant trends are seen. For example, events in Syria can be a prototype of Russia's collapse in the medium term. The driving force of such a collapse will be the Muslim population of the Russian Federation, and Turkey is able to produce the process, as it has happened in Syria. It is impossible to exist in one geopolitical space in one geopolitical space. And Turkey Erdogan is building it much more efficient than Putin.