Europe will receive "Arabian" gas. That has lost Russia because of Bashar Assad's escape
The influence of Moscow in the Middle East and Africa will evaporate in the eyes: military bases will have to be reduced, and the arrival of armed opposition groups to power was perceived by the world as a personal defeat of Russian President Vladimir Putin. The Russian military campaign in Syria, which began in 2015, resolved issues with natural gas transit through Syria to the European Union.
The expert community argued that it was important for the Russian Federation to store Bashar Assad in power to protect their positions in the European gas market. There were three scenarios of Syria significance to preserve Russian gas exports: the laying of a gas pipeline from Qatar to Turkey and further to Europe through Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Syria; Iran gas pipeline through Iraq, Syria and further; Opening and development of new gas fields in Syrian territorial waters in the Mediterranean.
Qatar's participation in the supply of Nabukko's gas pipeline was discussed in 2009-2010, but the plans were mostly due to Bashar Assad. Europe, in turn, wanted to reduce the dependence on Russian gas and waited for increased supplies from Qatar and even the sub -Iran. Russia is not beneficial to any of these options and only a protracted war could delay their implementation. The voluminous analytical article of the famous lawyer Robert Kennedy Jr.
, the nephew of the famous President John Kennedy, in Politico, confirms that the War against the Assad system began not with the Arab Spring Civic Protests in 2011. The events unfolded in 2000, when Qatar proposed to build a pipeline for $ 10 billion and a length of 1500 kilometers through Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria and Turkey. Qatar shares the North/South Paras gas field with Iran, the richest in the world natural gas storage.
The trade embargo forbade Iran to export gas, and the Sea of Qatar liquefied gas entered the European markets. This situation limited volumes and sharply increased costs. The proposed pipeline would connect Qatar directly to the European energy markets through distribution terminals in Turkey. Ankara, in turn, earned huge transit fees. Kennedy, Jr.
notes that the Katar-Turkey Pipeline would give the Sunnaya Gulf a decisive domination in the global natural gas markets and would strengthen Qatar, the closest state ally in the Arab world. The European Union also expected a pipeline that would give it cheap energy and facilitated the suffocating economic and political influence of Putin.
The gas factor, according to the analyst of the Center for Strategic Communications and Information Security of Maxim Yali, was crucial in supporting Russia's Assad regime. Moscow sought to prevent the construction of gas pipelines with Syria to Turkey from Qatar and Iran. "The cost of gas production in Qatar and Iran is lower than in Russia.
It is early to say about the continuation of this scenario after Assad escape: first you need to establish control of the territories where the pipes will lie. It is important to sign previous contracts for the completion of gas pipelines that run to Europe through Turkey. Turkey, for its part, can become the largest gas hub in the world and dictate the conditions of Moscow in obtaining additional discounts on Russian gas. "That is why Ankara supports Damascus fighters," the expert notes.
The designs for the supply of the European Union by Arabian gas were indeed, but the initiative projects did not follow. Russia closely monitored the trade processes and realized that Iranian and Qatar gas in the European market is superfluous, says Focus expert on relations on relations, the president of the Center of Globalism "XXI Strategy" Mikhail Gonchar. "Iran and Qatar are almost far behind Russia in gas reserves.
Therefore, in Moscow, they decided to intervene in the Syrian conflict under the slogan of the rescue of" legitimate power of Assad. Experts explain. The dream of Turkey to become the largest gas hub in the world, provided that gas is supplied through Syria is not realized. The thing is not even that the situation will be constantly shaken by Russia. Europe differs in economic development from 15 years ago: the volume of consumption and import of gas has decreased significantly.
The level of the European industry suits the available level of gas supply. The fall of imports from Russia to a minimum in five years did not cause disaster, but Norway and the USA intensified supplies. We will remind, Russia asked Turkey for assistance in the safe withdrawal of troops from Syria. Navy and aviation bases in Tartus and Khmeimim will remain. The focus previously described how Russia rescued Bashar Assad.