Operation in the Kursk region failed if it was a sabotage: the Russian Federation comes to Pokrovsk - Forbes
On Wednesday, August 28, Russian troops entered the village of Novogrodivka, Donetsk region and found themselves in five miles from Pokrovsk - a city, which is the main purpose of the Russian offensive to the east, which has been going on for almost a year. US military correspondent David AKS believes that if the invasion of Ukraine in the Kursk region of Russia was a diversion, then it failed. He wrote about it in his material for Forbes.
He noted that the Armed Forces did not have many additional troops to deploy them at the front near Pokrovsk. Many spare brigades that were a month ago are now involved in the unexpected invasion of Ukraine in the Kursk region of Russia. The Ukrainian leadership is finally beginning to realize the urgent need to restore the balance of power in the Pokrovsky direction. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy acknowledged that the situation is extremely difficult.
Future fighting for Pokrovsk, a city with a pre -war population of 60 thousand people, is in fact a continuation of the battle for Avdiivka, which ended with the retreat of Ukrainian troops in February. Avdiivka, which was 24 miles east of Pokrovsk, was a fortress that defended settlements, rail and road tracks in the West. Pokrovsk is located "at the important intersection of several rail lines", explains the Ukrainian analytical group Fronetelligence Insight.
The city has become a key transport and railway distribution unit, which facilitates the supply of Ukrainian forces across the front line, from the coal to the north of Donetsk and further. Having captured Pokrovsk, Russia can weaken Ukrainian defense across the Eastern Front line - a critical prerequisite for a wider Russian advancement, which can lead to the full occupation of Donetsk region.
When the Ukrainian command, led by General Alexander Sirsky, made a decision to invade Kursk a powerful thousandth brigades of eight or more brigades, it surprised some observers. Why were these troops not aimed at supporting Pokrovsk? One of the most common interpretations of the Ukrainian strategy in Kursk is that the invasion was to distract the Russian units from the East, weakening the pressure on Pokrovsk. In this sense, the invasion of Kursk could be a diversion. If so, it failed.
Instead of throwing their best troops on Kursk to suspend the Ukrainian offensive, the Kremlin has collected a variety of forces of counteraction to invasion, including many young and poorly trained conscripts, says David Aks. This reinforcement slowed, but did not stop the Ukrainian invasion. More important to the Russian strategy, it allowed the Kremlin to preserve its oriental troops intact.
Three weeks after the invasion of Ukraine into the Kursk region, the Russian offensive in the East not only continues, but also gaining momentum. "Although we expected that the city of Novogrodivka would be captured in the coming days. The pace of promotion of Russian troops exceeded our expectations: they not only slowed down as they approached the city, but even accelerated," Osint-analysts quoted.
The Ukrainian brigades defending Pokrovsk, without proper reinforcement, may not have a different choice but to hand over Pokrovsk - and soon. "If the Ukrainian command does not take measures to stabilize the situation, Russian troops may find themselves on the outskirts of Pokrovsk for several weeks, not months, as we thought before," analysts say.
According to Frontelligence Insight, the Ukrainian leadership has several options for stabilizing the front line, including the deployment of newly created brigades, the redeployment of forces from Kursk and Kharkiv regions or the redeployment of battalions from more stable fronts. The optimistic result is that the General Staff will find strength to strengthen the front line near Pokrovsk and they will bleed Russian brigades and regiments until they simply be able to support their offensive.
This is not an impossible task. The Russians lose hundreds of people and dozens of equipment in the east. But no one knows for sure when such losses will become too significant for the Russian military. In the sustained optimism, at the end of last year, the Estonia Ministry of Defense predicted that Ukraine could be translated into the course of the war in 2024, killing or breaking 100,000 Russians in 12 months.
In fact, Ukraine has probably already beat or crippled 100,000 Russians in the first six months of this year - and yet Russia continues to attack and move to Pokrovsk. At the same time, the Commander -in -Chief of the Armed Forces Oleksandr Syrsky emphasized that the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation had to take away some of its troops from the territory of Ukraine through surgery in the Kursk region.