Blackmail darkness and cold. What Putin achieves his ultimatum and what can be hindered
Surprisingly, many people look at the summit and throwing Putin outside the context. We will add. The question of power is key. Because any end of the war requires political consolidation. And the reconciliation of relations in the world through the creation of new rules, organizations, alliances and more. - especially.
The Russian Federation unambiguously marked the vector: to achieve such results in Ukraine in 2024 in order to get into the maximum negotiating position before the finish election in the US and to use success at the front to create the most favorable configurations of the authorities everywhere (from Moldova to Belgium) to solve their tasks.
The desired configuration for the Russian Federation and its divisors on the "axis of evil" looks something like this: that is, the general discrediting of the event for playing with the countries of the "world majority". The campaign began against the backdrop of rapid exhaustion of the Ukrainian army through blocking the US assistance. The trend for Ukraine was very alarming.
Imagine such a picture for a second at the end of May and early June: and against the backdrop of this beauty-elections in Europe and mentioned sums. How would Putin's "Peace Initiatives" in this case? The Russian Front failed. The most controversial episode is in the reed area. Kharkiv could not be scared. Vice versa.
Due to the fact that it was focused on Kharkiv and show its importance for Ukraine, part of the prohibitions on the western weapons on the territory of the Russian Federation was lifted. It was not possible to provoke Ukrainian citizens for suicide actions. The support of power is declining. However, with the exception of a few political players, even those citizens who do not feel sympathy for power, they are aware of who the enemy and what priorities are.
(I emphasize one local moment - the demolition of the IAF near the foundations of the Tithe Church in Kiev. The competent actions of the authorities and the cold -bloodedness of people did not allow Moscow to play this excuse. Russian networks weaken. When we are not mistaken - they may become less). The United States has resumed help, it gradually saturates defense. Consequently. Elections in Europe were "within the pathology". That is, those difficult trends that were so were reflected.
But to turn the wave into a tsunami from the Kremlin did not work. The situation in Britain, France and Germany will add nervousness. However, experts say that there should be nothing catastrophic with the so -called. our tasks. In addition, there are a number of new sanctions and discussing the support mechanism through frozen assets of the Russian Federation . . . Together. By the end of the first segment of the Russian Federation, the result was distant from the ideal.
In three months (March-May), Russia destroyed the shunting generation in Ukraine, destroyed one city (Vovchansk), destroyed two dozen villages, now destroys the time of ravines, made a number of barbaric shelling of Kharkiv. This is a tragedy for us. But for the ghost, which claims to restructure the world, is a clear failure. More more. It was manifested (and all of them saw) that the Russian Federation lacked the resource for the realization of ideas.
One of the signs: in the Russian Federation sharply increases payments to mercenaries ("volunteers"). Due to huge losses, they are only able to fill the personnel of the army. It takes time to solve some large -scale tasks of the Russian Federation to accumulate the resource. Without the acceleration of mobilization, nothing will work. And against this background, Putin comes out with an ultimatum . . .
What is the main thing in it? After all, no one in the world is interested in what with the Kherson and Zaporizhzhya region, is it obvious? The main thing is the requirement of formal fixation of territorial seizures. The event is required to admit that the Russian Federation is now being captured by force within armed aggression. Which undermines all the foundations and crosses all the values of the free world.
It can really start the process of global changes in favor of an authoritarian coalition. Yesterday or the mouth of different politicians came comments in which they read: friend, you showed nothing to expose such desires. The summit just contributed to the widespread audience to record Putin's failure and the limits of his capabilities. That comes out for now. Putin requires: officially fixing and flipping through the page.
The position that matures because of its failure: the maximum that the Russian Federation can count on is the freezing on the front line, the status of captured territories as a gray zone and a burden on the neck in the form of concomitant sanctions. But this is the maximum. And reality may be different that Ukraine has been providing with its actions more than once. The above does not mean that we all have good and no problem. We live a tragedy. The war goes on our earth.
Problems are well known, they are terrible, a number of good people live with betrayal monetization, describes everything in detail and talented. The bottom line is that the Kremlin's ability to bluff and intimidate, they also have a shaft of problems. They accumulate. Putin is not in vain avoids mass mobilization, which blood from the nose is necessary. The gap between the requirements of the Kremlin and the ability to provide them with force already see.
In this context, an ultimatum is a clear mistake. The dependence is this: the more stable situation we have, the higher the need for the Russian Federation to carry out mobilization. They can try to squeeze the shaded Ukrainian society. But when Ukraine turns into a monolith in some site, it always ends bad for Russians. My hypothesis is in this way. Since the Kremlin cannot break our army on the front, the Russian Federation will inevitably increase the pressure to break us from the inside.
That by the fall the army will lose resistance and decompose. And such a subject as "Ukraine" has become as plump as possible. Then partners will inevitably turn away from Ukraine. And it will be possible to resuscitate the track of the struggle for fixing territorial seizures. To disintegrate the most effective by forming a false alternative and destroying the meaning of resistance.
On one cup of scales will be placed darkness and cold (Energy destruction), famine (against the background of the crop in the Russian Federation will attack our fields and granaries), fuel crisis, etc. , and the other - the illusion of "truce" to "poison" Ukrainian society and military . Paralyze the will to resist and provoke discord. The purpose of this campaign will be the annihilation of the Verkhovna Rada (all types of discredit) so that no decisions are made.
For deputies to be afraid to mark their existence and pretended to be dead. If the council does not continue VP and mobilize until August 11, a serious internal crisis can begin. The torpedo can make the idea of the Olympic Armistice (Olympiad from 26. 07 to 14. 08). Nothing interferes with the conditional laurel in a few weeks to go out and say: "We are marked by our conditions of transition.
To make the Ukrainian side to think about them, we are ready to go to the ceasefire at the time of the Olympiad on the current front line, as our Chinese friends and French partners offer . Throwing can be supported by the exchange of prisoners and other humanitarian actions. For the Russian Federation, these words do not mean anything. And for Ukraine, such a throw will become an internal political test.
The dates coincide so that the hypothetical "ceasefire" technically reduces the chances of continuing all and mobilization. After entering the "ceasefire", there will be a tremendous request not to leave this condition. The blame for "refusing to stop fire" or the breakdown of the process will be automatically laid on Ukraine and its power. For the average deputy, it can be a problem of voting for VP. The Kremlin is no wonder the story that in Istanbul allegedly "agreed".
The illusion is created that Ukraine allegedly constantly refuses to establish peace and provokes meaningless victims. I emphasize. The idea of negotiations is not dangerous. The danger is that this idea of the Russian Federation wants to pack so as to turn into poison.
If the Russians do not "poison" us by the end of July with the illusion of "truce" or to be cleared with a complex of other problems (they will do everything for our population to howl), there will be no other option other than mass mobilization in the Russian Federation. That is as traumatic and unpopular as possible.
If they do not deploy mobilization (and they do not have time), then in the fall they will have difficulty with a major operation to ensure the impact on the election in the US and in other countries. It turns out that by the end of the year, all the arguments of Putin will be reduced to the continuation of the war for exhaustion. This is not the picture he would like to present the world. And the set of our arguments should be replenished, for example, the same F-16 . . .
The value of Putin's aggression for its divisors is that it can theoretically give the history of successful entry and exit from war with generally recognized prey. Therefore, it makes sense to invest. In the case of Putin's success, the fires will begin everywhere.
If the aggressor is stuck with a suitcase without a handle and begins to exhaust - will think of thinking, and is it worthwhile to bother with this toxic history? And should military aggression be practiced? If the Kremlin is not able to reduce the subjectivity of Ukraine (with the help of military defeats and political destabilization) to such an extent that Kiev agrees to formalize territorial losses - therefore, we will return these territories sooner or later.
And the whole negotiation structure will consist of the correspondence of the Russian Federation from the maximum desires. It's all: the situation is difficult, but there is no hopelessness. I showed the range between the expectations of the Russian Federation at the end of May. The next challenge is not to get your own advice, though there is something for. And to awaken those who make decisions so that they adequately respond to the challenges in the energy.