Russia will exhale by spring: Budanov made a new forecast for what to prepare for Ukraine
The Russian forces will exhale by the spring of 2024, then Ukrainians will attack, the head of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine (GUR MO) Kirill Budanov will be attacked. The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation began to step in November 2023 and did not reach the goals. However, "certain promotion" is observed in the area of Avdiivka of Donetsk region, recognizes the head of intelligence. "You see the results yourself.
To say they are great, it will be sure. But their offensive is still ongoing. Somewhere in early spring, it is already completely exhausted," - says the commander. According to the plan of the Russian leadership, their army had to go out as soon as possible to the barrier border along the Black Stallion River and further at the administrative of Donetsk and Luhansk regions. "As you know, there is nothing close to it," Budanov added. Western analysts see a different trend.
Since the beginning of 2024, Russia has launched a new stage of winter and spring operation on the border of Lugansk and Kharkiv regions. Recently, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation has made tactical success southeast of Kupyansk along the P-07 road "Kupyansk-Svatov" and exacerbate attacks northwest of starch in the direction of the Oskil River, the American Institute of War Study said.
It is worth noting that the head of the GUR MO often makes forecasts for the end of the war or the liberation of Ukrainian territories. In October 2022, Budanov said that the Armed Forces of Ukraine "returned to the Crimea" - by the end of spring 2023. Subsequently, the calculation was not justified and the military commander declared "loss from the schedule". "We must admit that events develop more slowly than should be in all calculations. There is what we have.
But if you look at the Crimea and the level of hostilities that occur in the peninsula, you will understand that not comparing with 2022 , I'm not talking about the period from 2014 to 2022. That is, we go to the goal. Yes, slower than we wanted, slower than we were counting, but we go, "he explained. In 2023, Budanov made several forecasts.
He also allowed in 2023 to return all territories of Ukraine as of 1991, and in October announced that the full -scale war with the Russian Federation would continue in 2025 and 2026. And recently, Budanov spoke about the destruction of the Crimean bridge this year, proving the idea "increasing the turnover of Ukrainian OPC. " The Russian economy has accumulated a stock of power for combat.
Western intelligence has estimated that the economic status of the Russian Federation makes it possible to wage war in Ukraine for at least two years. The sources of the British newspaper The Telegraph said that Moscow is now spending 40% of Russian GDP for war, much more than health care and education. The full scale of Russia's transition to military rails is unknown, the Kremlin keeps all the secrets.
Data on the defense industry are not available, and Russian propagandists are overestimating opportunities. The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation declared production in 2023 1530 tanks and 2518 armored vehicles. Russian officials also reported on the production of tanks by 560%, and APC - by 350%. In addition, Moscow wants to reach 2 million artillery shells a year, not including ammunition asked in North Korea and potentially in Iran.
"Since the beginning of the Great War in Ukraine, unfortunately, Russia has increased sales of fossil fuel. The aggressor has earned 550 billion euros on its export. Russia's economic stock increased at the expense," - said military expert Dmitry Snegirev. The forecasts of Ukrainian intelligence on Russia's production potential were also not fulfilled. Sectoral and personal sanctions did not stop the production of winged and ballistic missiles.
There are many human reserves in Russia; "Added to the ranks of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and labor migrants. The aggregate number of soldiers allows you to do without the announcement of mobilization. To say that by spring, the Russians will exhale, means to give the desired for a valid," - explains the analyst. In the spring, the invaders will focus on the main purpose - the full capture of the Donetsk region.
The implementation of Vladimir Putin's decree on the inclusion of all Donetsk and Luhansk regions in Russia will be a priority task, despite the seasons and forecasts. "Wave tactics are possible: peak and decline for regrouping and searching for fresh reserves for the army," the expert says. The offensive regime of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation will last before the election of the President of Russia.
In the near future, invaders cannot be allowed to take sharp steps so as not to spoil the "election holiday". Therefore, the offensive goes in several directions, notes in the conversation with the focus Major General of the SBU in stock, military expert Viktor Yugan. "The army of the Russian Federation burns resources, hoping for complete mobilization after elections and replenishment of military units. It remains an interesting question: where do they take armored vehicles," he emphasizes.
Military assistance from Iran and North Korea cannot be considered a permanent source. Both countries are on the verge of possible conflicts. More than 50 countries help Ukraine, but mostly military goods and money leave the United States. It remains to hope for the rapid agreement of the Republicans with Democrats and the approval of the US Congress to allocate funds for Kiev, the expert summed up.