Mobilization, frost freezing and artillery duels. How will the nature of the war in the cold change
He is convinced that the Ukrainian army will continue the counter -offensive and press on the occupiers, but the pace will slow down. "The General Staff of Ukraine will continue to press on Russian troops and will not give them the opportunity to get back on their feet, regroup or learn something. It is very important," - said General Gogedes. In his opinion, Russian soldiers are not ready and not trained. And in cold weather, it will be more difficult for them on the front.
"The Ukrainian army has their people behind the back," says Gogess. "And the Russians, especially newcomers, are not well equipped, unprepared and unobtrusive, will be forced to resist the strong attacks of the Ukrainian army. " With the onset of the cold, the nature of the war may change. Both foreign and Ukrainian experts speak about it. "From the experience of past years, we know that in the winter there are static fighting.
And this is due primarily to the fact that the field roads are blurred," says focus military expert Mikhail Zhirokhov. Minus 30, now they are replaced by wet snow and rain. And the Donbas, like Kherson region, where the main fighting is now, is the steppe, finding a forest strip there is very difficult, so both we and Russians will be forced to dig up near settlements. The offensive actions will be minimized, we will see artillery ping pong. Unfortunately, effective.
" And so the special question is the quality of artillery and training of artillerymen. Some experts, referring to the latest supplies of international partners, are safely talking about a large number of Western artillery and cautiously - about some advantage. Zhirokhov notes that the next package of US military assistance included not artillery guns and launchers, but ammunition-shells for 155 mm artillery and HIMARS RSD: "This means that those guns that have been sent earlier work.
Now in the public field. We see that they returned from Lithuania after repair German self -propelled artillery installations Panzerhaubitze 2000. That is, they worked their service life, 50,000 shells on the trunk, and needed repair. " In addition, according to the expert, the Ukrainian army is undergoing small losses of artillery. This can be judged from the "reports" of the Russians - they quickly post photos and videos with loss on the Internet.
Among them are howitzers M 777, but there is no Himars or CAU "crab", which means that Ukrainian artillerymen act quite effectively in the counter -backer struggle - if they do not completely win, they are not inferior to the Russians. In terms of Iranian drones, which in his interview was also mentioned by General Ben Gogess, their effectiveness in winter may be reduced.
The fact that they were developed for plus temperatures, it is not known how they will behave during frost, how protected their parts are protected or freezing fuel. The number of falls may increase.
At the same time, the Russian military wants to overwinter in Ukraine: they try to fix the conditional demarcation line in the war zone, to strengthen themselves in positions (dig trenches and trenches, put anti -tank concrete fortifications), mobilize (according to some estimates, in plans to mobilize from one to one and a half) , restore the stocks of equipment.
"At least in the north of the Luhansk region they form the so -called" Putin line "to the border from the Russian Federation (it is said that on the western border of the occupied Luhansk region, the military of the Russian Federation builds a defensive line - ed). They dig ditches, trenches and install rows of anti -tank columns . The engineering technique is working. The Russians want to fix themselves to keep Svatov and Border Grounds under their control, "Girokhov continues.
As for Kherson region, there is little information, but experts say the Russians also reduced the front line, try to fix themselves in the Chernobayivka area, in fact, Kherson's suburb. And to make it easier to draw the front line, the civilian population is discharged. "Near Kherson, the Russian Federation tries not only to increase the number of military at the expense of mobilized, but also the quality of defense - capitalize, for example, ten people can keep a large front line.
In addition, unlike Donetsk and Luhansk regions of highly urbanized areas, Kherson region - It is an open area with several landings and several villages above the road. ", - explains the analyst. Not only Russia accumulates reserves, but also Ukraine. From the first day of a full -scale invasion of Ukraine, joint mobilization is taking place. From February 24, it has been continued four times. The last August 12 for 90 days.
The next time the draft law on the continuation of martial law and the mobilization of the President will have to be submitted to Parliament by November 20. The mobilization is currently ongoing. It is needed to complete the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as well as rotation of those who have long served on the front.
Advisor to the Presidential Office of Adriy Yermak Alexei Arestovich says that if Russia is mobilizing a million people and at least half will send to Ukraine, then you will need to increase mobilization. "It is important to know that in Ukraine mobilized do not throw immediately on the front. And some do not get there at all, but remain in the northern regions, because the likelihood of attack from the territory of Belarus is maintained.
The accent is shifting to preparation according to Western standards - ours are trained in Germany, Lithuania, Lithuania , Poland, Great Britain, Spain. There is now a need for personnel that are close to equipment and officers, even without experience in the army, "the expert explains. Another important question is how to affect the front that Russia beats on Ukrainian energy.
The nuance is that now there are no large working defense enterprises in Ukraine - we do not produce military equipment, ammunition, everything comes from partners, so there is nothing to stop due to lack of electricity. As for the front, this is not the first winter for the Ukrainian army, the mechanisms have already been worked out - since 2014 the Russians have broken off power lines. Therefore, a system of autonomous nutrition is organized, generators are used.
In the winter of 2022-2023, the front will require more diesel and other autonomous power sources. In this case, shelling can affect the rear objects, such as hospitals. But there, as they say in the government, have already been prepared. However, when talking about the cold winter, you should not forget about hot events in Kherson. The Russians have suspicious loudly and say that Kherson can lose.
If we recall summer-2022, the Ukrainian side also hinted at the intensification of hostilities in the south, but went on the offensive in the Kharkiv region. What prevents Russia from acting in the same way: it seems like to prepare for the fighting for Kherson, and in fact to carry out an attack in the Bakhmut area or at the border of Kharkiv region. But it will be clear soon, and today Bakhmut and the surrounding area - and so one of the most complex areas of the front.
Thus, in the coming weeks, conditional conservation of the front line and the accumulation of forces until spring is expected. "In particular, the Russians will also throw their strength to Belarus. In the winter, they will lift tanks, weapons and may find" arguments "for Lukashenko," Zhirokhov says.
Now, in his opinion, the task of a minimum for the Russian Federation is to keep Kherson to leave the bridgehead for further offensive: when Russian mobilized are prepared, then they will be able to implement their operations in the south. But the first attempts will only make in the spring, otherwise the losses will be huge.
At the same time, the head of the Center for Military Legal Research and the military expert Oleksandr Musienko says that it is not profitable for Ukraine to stop the fighting or finally transferred to a position war. Therefore, the Armed Forces will, taking into account the situation, including weather conditions, to act on the front, monthly or even a week, adjusting positions. This means that the Ukrainian army will be able to develop its success.