Russian troops lack the forces and people to hold a new offensive in the summer - isw
"Russian troops are likely to lack a broader operational potential for a separate renewed offensive operation in Donetsk region or anywhere on the front this summer," the report reads. Analysts have specified that the Russian Federation periodically conducts local mechanized storms in the west of Donetsk region, which reflect the degree of current offensive potential of Russia.
"Russia is unlikely to conduct a new separate summer offensive operation through material and human restrictions," - said ISW experts. The American Institute of War Study explained that the Russian military command may intend to present certain limited tactical successes in the West of Donetsk region as a major victory for the Russian people, and also tries to force Russian troops to advance as far away in Donetsk region, despite the losses they suffered in this process.
According to analysts, Russian troops currently have sufficient armored vehicles for periodic and larger mechanized storms throughout the front line in the short- and medium term. "However, it is unclear whether Russian troops have the necessary reserves of armored vehicles for simultaneous large -scale offensive operations in several sections of the front and to replace the increasing loss of armored vehicles that may result from the intensification of mechanized operations," the report said.
At the same time, these Russian offensive operations also cause significant losses to Ukrainian defenders and are likely to weaken Ukrainian opportunities due to exhaustion, regardless of whether the Russians will gain considerable success or not. "This approach to exhaustion is consistent with Putin's general strategy against Ukraine, which is based on the assumption that Russia will be able to keep any territory that Russian troops will capture," analysts emphasized.