A sharp fall in the Russian ruble: why happened and what from that Ukraine
25 rubles per dollar on November 27) and costs almost 105 rubles per dollar. Ukrainian experts believe that a controlling shot in the National Tuise of Russia became sanctions that introduced the US Ministry of Finance against the Russian Gazprombank and six of its foreign subsidiaries. And Western experts add that these sanctions can block the only way for European clients to pay for Russian gas and increase volatility in the Russian foreign exchange market.
"Payments for EU energy through Gazprombank are likely to be impossible by the end of 2024," Sinara Investment Bank analysts confirmed in a Reuters comment. According to economic analyst Andriy Shevchyshyn, a number of events in the economy of the aggressor country have led to the fall of the Russian ruble. And above all, the imbalance caused by hostilities in Ukraine and which has accumulated because of high inflation.
"For a long time, we saw how the Central Bank of the Russian Federation increased, the ruble remained stable. At the same time, inflation was accelerated. As of December, the Central Bank rate can be raised up to 23%, which will make it possible to obtain loans with the defensive sector. High imbalance, "said Andrey Shevchyshyn in a comment to focus.
In his opinion, after the victory of Donald Trump, who will soon become the 47th President of the United States, the Russians have some positive expectations for the rapid end of the war. Meanwhile, the United States is "making a control shot", closing Gazprombank, which is an active participant in the financing For payments for Russian energy and still retained access to the SWIFT system.
Gazprombank is an active participant in the financing of the war, because it carries out operations for the purchase of military equipment, payments to the military, and was used for payments for Russian energy and still retained access to the SWIFT system "Sozhprombank" and another bunch of small banks. Thus, the last bank, through which operations were carried out, withdrawal, which provided complex logistics chains, including oil and gas, which was the only window to all this.
About the arbitration, won by Europe against Gazprombank, which is not a piece of income that has lost all this in the Russian market and a difficult economic situation in all sectors, ”the expert added. And yet, Shevchyshyn reminds, ahead of the OPEC decision to stop containment of oil production. "The Russian Federation under sanctions is unlikely to keep its impact and its fate on the market. Therefore, the weakening of the ruble is also a reflection of the problem with energy," he added.
Meanwhile, Eavex Capital Investment Company Analytical Department Andriy Churin associates the dollar strengthening with Donald Trump's victory in the US elections. And he notes that the US currency has strengthened all other world currencies. Trump seeks to maintain the dollar status as a dominant reserve currency.
The dollar also received some speculative support from investors who hope for changes in the monetary policy of the US Central Bank "Trump seeks to maintain dollar status as a dominant reserve currency. The dollar also received some speculative support from investors who hope for changes in monetary policy US Bank, namely, keeping interest rates at a higher level, which will, accordingly, give a higher yield of US Treasury bonds, ”says Dmitry Churin.
As for the Russian ruble, according to the expert, his course was artificially supported by the Russian Central Bank. "During the period when the regulator reduces its impact on the currency market, there is a devaluation of the ruble. In its essence, the ruble is not freely converted currency, so its exchange rate depends largely on the behavior of the Russian central bank," Churin explains.
Experts also pay attention to the statements of the heads of the Russian ministries, including the Minister of Finance Anton Siluanova, who reported the exhaustion of the budget momentum. "Budget policy will be weighed in the next three years, and the support of the economy from the budget is a point," he said at the end of November, as reported by the Russian media.
In the Russian Federation there are huge reserves of oil and gas, and cooperation with India and other Asian countries allows to receive currency revenue, that it can be directed to military expenditures "So, it is clear that only private investments will be able to give additional impetus to the Russian budget. Sanctions that cut the last channel for external transactions.
The ruble responds to all these imbalances, and sanctions against Gazprombank have become the final control shot that caused this situation in the Russian Federation, " - added Andriy Shevchyshyn. However, it is too early to expect that the Kremlin will not have enough money to fund aggression. After all, the countries have huge reserves of oil and gas, and cooperation with India and other Asian countries allows to receive foreign exchange revenue, which can be directed to military expenditures.
However, most experts, both Ukrainian and Western, believe that revenues from the energy of the Russian Federation have already declined significantly, and the subsequent budget infusion of billions in the MIC can eventually adversely affect the economy of the aggressor country. According to Investment Consultant Chris Vifer, a weak ruble will complicate the fight against inflation.